1993—2022年珠江流域气温与降水时空变化及其极值预测
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P467

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国家自然科学基金项目“稀土矿区典型流域水沙过程与氨氮及重金属多界面迁移机制研究(41861002)”; 国家大学生创新创业项目(202410582014; 202410582007); 广东省大学生创新创业项目(S202410582031); 嘉应学院领军人才启动项目(322E1828)


Spatiotemporal variations in temperature and precipitation from 1993 to 2022 and prediction of their extreme values in Pearl River basin
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    [目的] 探讨珠江流域1993—2022年气温与降水量时空变化特征,同时对其未来极端气候变化进行估算预测,为该流域气候变化预测和防灾减灾工作提供科学依据。[方法] 选取珠江流域1993—2022年51个气象站点的气温和降水量数据,运用Mann-Kendall法和普通克里金插值等统计方法,分析了气温与降水量的变化,并基于SSP1-2.6(可持续路径下到2100年辐射强迫稳定在2.6 W/m2)情景模式对2023—2050年的极端气候事件进行了预测。[结果] ①从时间上看,气温呈现上升趋势,降水量除全年和夏季外,亦呈现上升趋势; ②从空间上看,气温冬季变化较均匀,其他3季部分地区变化差异明显。降水量总体呈东、东南多,西、西北少的分布特征; ③在SSP1-2.6情景下,2023—2050年日最高气温极大值、日最低气温极小值和最多连续无雨日数呈现不显著上升趋势,而极端湿天降水量则呈现不显著下降趋势; ④空间上,2023—2050年日最高气温极大值由中部向周围递减,极端湿天降水量极高值出现中南部。日最低气温极小值由东南向西北地区递减,而最多连续无雨日数由中南部向其他地区递减。[结论] 1993—2022年珠江流域已呈“暖湿化”趋势;在SSP1-2.6路径下2023—2050年极端气候事件呈现复杂化、局部突出化的趋势。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The spatio-temporal variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in the Pearl River basin from 1993 to 2022 were analyzed, and to the future extreme climate changes were estimated and predicted,in order to provide a scientific basis for the prediction of climate change and disaster prevention and mitigation in the basin. [Methods] This study selected temperature and precipitation data from 51 meteorological stations in the Pearl River basin from 1993 to 2022 and used statistical methods such as Mann-Kendall test and ordinary Kriging interpolation to analyze the changes in temperature and precipitation. Based on the shared socioeconomic pathway 1 〔SSP1-2.6 (with a radiative forcing level of 2.6 W/m² by 2100)〕 scenario, extreme climate events during 2023—2050 were predicted. [Results] ① The temperature showed an upward trend temporally, and precipitation also showed an upward trendexcept annually and during summer. ② Spatially the temperatures were relatively uniform in winter but exhibited significant regional differences in the other three seasons. Overall, precipitation was higher in the east and southeast and lower in the west and northwest. ③ Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the maximum daily temperature extremes and minimum daily temperature extremes and the maximum number of consecutive rainless days showed a non-significant upward trend, and the precipitation on extremely wet days showed a non-significant downward trend during 2023—2025. ④ Spatially, the maximum daily temperature decreased from the central region to the surrounding areas, and extremely high values of precipitation on extremely wet days were observed in the central-southern region during 2023—2025. The minimum daily temperature extremes decrease from the southeast to the northwest, whereas the maximum number of consecutive rainless days decreased from the central-southern regions to other areas. [Conclusion] From 1993 to 2022 the Pearl River basin has shown a ‘warm and humid’ trend; Under the SSP1-2.6 pathway, extreme climate events will be mere complex hybrid and locally prominent during 2023—2025.

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刘友存,徐博锐,陈旭青,林斯宜,姚婉清,刘涛.1993—2022年珠江流域气温与降水时空变化及其极值预测[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(5):255-266,293

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-27
  • 最后修改日期:2025-06-23
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-11-07
  • 出版日期: 2025-10-18