［Objective］ To map the distribution of landscape ecological risks in the Dabang River basin， we conducted in-depth analyses of the factors underlying landscape ecological risk in typical karst river basins and performed multi-scenario predictions to provide a scientific basis for enhancing local ecosystem stability and protecting the karst ecological environments. ［Methods］ An ecological risk assessment model was constructed integrating spatial autocorrelation analysis， optimal parameter geodetector， and multi-scenario simulation， we examined the ecological risk was examined in the Dabang River basin from 2013 to 2023. ［Results］ ① The largest land-use area transformation within the basin occurred between cultivated and forest land， with the most intense period of change from 2018 to 2023. ② Ecological risk in the basin had gradually improved. Medium-high-risk and high-risk areas were mainly located in the western part of Xixiu District， Liuzhi Special District， southwestern part of Guanling County， and the central part of Zhenning County， regions characterized by grassland， water areas， and construction land. Spatial agglomeration of ecological risk in the basin initially increased and then decreased. ③ Single-factor detection of landscape ecological risks in the basin indicated that Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） （0.37）， night light （0.16）， and vegetation coverage （0.11） had the strongest explanatory power. Double-factor detection results were impacted by the interaction of NDVI∩soil type， distance to railway∩NDVI， and population distribution∩NDVI， suggesting that combined effects of natural and social factors are key to explaining changes in landscape ecological risk in the basin. ④ In multi-scenario predictions， overall landscape ecological risk was relatively high in the economic development （ED） scenario and relatively low in the ecological protection （EP） scenario. Considering both sustainable river basin development and ecological protection， the EP scenario offers a favorable path for future development of the river basin. ［Conclusion］ Landscape ecological risk in the Dabang River basin is mainly driven by interactions between natural and social factors. The ecological protection （EP） scenario results in a relatively low landscape ecological risk， making it an inevitable path for achieving sustainable development and building a beautiful China.