甘肃省耕地开发强度时空分异及影响因素研究
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甘肃农业大学

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国家自然科学(42361017);甘肃省高校创新(2024B-075);甘肃省高校研究生“创新之星”项目(2025CXZX-779)。


Study on the Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Influencing Factors of Cultivated Land Development Intensity in Gansu Province
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National Natural Science Foundation of China;Project supported by the University Innovation Fund of Gansu Province;Project supported by the University Innovation Fund of Gansu Province

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    摘要:

    [目的]为掌握甘肃省耕地资源开发现实情况及其影响因素,为制定精准有效的耕地开发保护政策提供帮助,促进耕地绿色持续发展。[方法]以甘肃省14个地州市为研究单元,量化耕地开发强度,并运用泰尔指数、标准差椭圆、灰色关联度等方法揭示2004-2023年甘肃省耕地开发强度时空格局演变特征和影响因素。[结果](1)近20年来,甘肃省耕地开发强度值波动上升,空间分布具有明显的异质性,呈“东高西低、南高北低”格局,高强度区集中于中部与东部黄河流域,低强度区分布在西南和西部。(2)甘肃省耕地开发广度空间分异呈“东高西低、南高北低”格局,时序上持续下降。耕地开发深度高值区由北向南过渡,低值区范围逐渐缩小。耕地开发频度“中部高、四周低”,市州间差异拉大。(3)甘肃省耕地开发强度形成较为稳定的空间集聚特征,重心整体朝西北方向移动,标准差椭圆面积从135816.83 km2增加到144192.68 km2,空间离散程度增大。(4)20年来,甘肃省耕地开发强度总泰尔系数从0.2180小幅波动下降至0.1680。其中,组间差异贡献率维持在59.83% - 70.56%间,主导区域总差异,河西地区对组间差异的贡献率在45.02% - 58.50%之间,是引发甘肃省耕地开发强度差异变化的主要部分。(5)甘肃省耕地开发强度值的分异情况不是由单一因子决定的,而是由多种因子共同驱动,且自然环境因素>社会经济因素。自然环境因素对开发强度、广度、深度起决定性作用,社会经济因素对频度起决定性作用。 [结论]甘肃省耕地开发强度变化是一个受自然环境因素主导,社会经济因素辅助,产生明显的空间异质性和集聚特征并逐年波动上升的动态变化过程。

    Abstract:

    [Objective]To grasp the current status of cultivated land resource development and its influencing factors in Gansu Province, provide support for formulating precise and effective policies for cultivated land development and protection, and promote the green and sustainable development of cultivated land. [Methods]Taking 14 prefecture-level cities in Gansu Province as research units, this study quantified the intensity of cultivated land development and employed methods such as the Theil Index, standard deviational ellipse, and gray correlation analysis to reveal the spatiotemporal pattern evolution characteristics and influencing factors of cultivated land development intensity in Gansu Province from 2004 to 2023. [Results](1) Over the past 20 years, the intensity of cultivated land development in Gansu Province has fluctuated and increased. The spatial distribution exhibits significant heterogeneity, presenting a pattern of "higher in the east, lower in the west; higher in the south, lower in the north." High-intensity areas are concentrated in the middle and eastern parts of the Yellow River Basin, while low-intensity areas are distributed in the southwest and west.(2) The spatial differentiation of cultivated land development breadth in Gansu Province shows a pattern of "higher in the east, lower in the west; higher in the south, lower in the north," with a continuous decline over time. The high-value areas of cultivated land development depth transition from north to south, and the scope of low-value areas gradually narrows. The frequency of cultivated land development is "higher in the central region, lower in surrounding areas," with growing disparities among prefecture-level cities.(3) The intensity of cultivated land development in Gansu Province has formed relatively stable spatial agglomeration characteristics. The center of gravity has shifted northwestward as a whole, and the area of the standard deviational ellipse has increased from 135,816.83 km2 to 144,192.68 km2, indicating an increase in spatial dispersion.(4) Over the past 20 years, the total Theil index of cultivated land development intensity in Gansu Province has fluctuated slightly from 0.2180 to 0.1680. Among them, the contribution rate of inter-group differences has remained between 59.83% and 70.56%, dominating the total regional differences. The Hexi region’s contribution rate to inter-group differences ranges from 45.02% to 58.50%, making it the primary driver of changes in cultivated land development intensity differences in Gansu Province.(5) The differentiation of cultivated land development intensity in Gansu Province is not determined by a single factor but jointly driven by multiple factors, with?natural environmental factors > socioeconomic factors. Natural environmental factors play a decisive role in development intensity, breadth, and depth, while socioeconomic factors play a decisive role in frequency. [Conclusion]The change in cultivated land development intensity in Gansu Province is a dynamic process dominated by natural environmental factors and assisted by socioeconomic factors, characterized by obvious spatial heterogeneity and agglomeration, with a fluctuating upward trend over the years.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-22
  • 最后修改日期:2025-06-10
  • 录用日期:2025-06-12
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