河南省黄河流域耕地NPP时空变化特征及其驱动因子
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F301.21,X171.1

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河南省科技攻关项目“河南典型粮食主产区耕地种植结构变化对水土资源平衡的影响机理及调控研究”(252102321114); 2024年河南省高等院校重点科研项目(24A630025); 2025年度河南省软科学项目(252400411068); 国家自然科学基金青年项目(42301300)


Spatiotemporal variation in NPP of cultivated land and its driving factors in Yellow River basin of Henan Province
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    摘要:

    [目的] 揭示河南省黄河流域耕地净初级生产力(NPP)的时空演变特征与驱动因子,为有效协同区域耕地生产能力挖掘和流域生态环境保护提供科学依据。[方法] 综合运用土地利用/覆盖数据集(CLUD)、MOD17A3H NPP数据集等多源数据,采用变异系数、Theil-Sen Median趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验方法和Hurst指数等方法,揭示2000—2023年河南省黄河流域耕地NPP时空变化特征,并借助地理探测器模型对其影响因子进行探测。[结果] ①2000—2023年河南省黄河流域耕地NPP年均值为383.04 g/(m2· a),以4.35 g/(m2 · a)的速度显著增加;空间分布总体呈现南高北低的特点,空间变异以较低波动和中度波动为主。②耕地NPP变化趋势以极显著增加为主,面积比例为43.61%,主要分布于研究区中西部;显著增加和不显著增加的耕地NPP面积分别为20.83%和22.76%。③耕地NPP的Hurst指数平均值为0.44,正向持续和负向持续面积比例分别为22.87%和77.13%;未来耕地NPP由增到减的区域面积最大,其面积比例为59.65%,广泛分布于各个地市。④年均气温、年均降水量、年均蒸发量和高程是影响耕地NPP的主要因子;气候条件、地形状况、社会经济等不同因子之间以非线性增强或双因子增强的交互作用方式共同影响耕地NPP。[结论] 2000—2023年河南省黄河流域耕地NPP总体呈现波动增加,自然因素和人为因素共同影响该区域耕地NPP;有效调控各因素以协同耕地利用与生态保护共同发展,对河南省黄河流域尤为重要,特别是在耕地NPP由增到减区的区域。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] To provide a scientific basis for effectively coordinating the tapping of regional cultivated land production capacity and ecological environmental protection of the Yellow River basin of Henan Province, the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of the net primary productivity (NPP) of cultivated land in the basin were analyzed. [Methods] Using multi-source data, including those from China’s land use/cover dataset (CLUD) and MOD17A3H NPP dataset, this study employs the coefficient of variation, Theil-Sen median trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, and Hurst index to reveal the spatiotemporal changes in cultivated land NPP in the basin from 2000 to 2023. A geographical detector model is used to identify influencing factors. [Results] ① From 2000 to 2023, the average annual NPP of cultivated land in the basin was 383.04 g/(m2·a), increasing significantly at a rate of 4.35 g/(m2·a). The spatial distribution generally showed the characteristics of being higher in the south and lower in the north, and the spatial variation was mainly dominated by low and medium fluctuations. ② The trend of change in cultivated land NPP was chiefly characterized by a very significant increase, with an area proportion of 43.61%, mainly distributed in the central and western parts of the study area. The cultivated land NPP areas with significant and insignificant increases were 20.83% and 22.76%, respectively. ③ The average Hurst index of cultivated land NPP was 0.44, and the proportions of positive and negative sustained areas were 22.87% and 77.13%, respectively. The largest proportion of future cultivated land NPP is expected to transition from increasing to decreasing, covering 59.65% of the area and being widely distributed across cities. ④ The main factors influencing cultivated land NPP include the annual average temperature, annual average precipitation, annual average evaporation, and elevation. Climate conditions, topographic features, and socioeconomic factors jointly influence cultivated land NPP through a nonlinear enhancement or dual-factor enhancement interactions. [Conclusion] From 2000 to 2023, the cultivated land NPP in the Yellow River basin of Henan Province showed an overall fluctuating increase. Both natural and anthropogenic factors influenced the NPP of cultivated land in this region. Effective regulation of these factors to harmonize cultivated land use and ecological protection is crucial, particularly in areas where cultivated land NPP is transitioning from increasing to decreasing in the region.

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赵曼宇,马泉来,孙晓兵,周浩.河南省黄河流域耕地NPP时空变化特征及其驱动因子[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(3):385-396

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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-23
  • 最后修改日期:2025-01-21
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-06-28
  • 出版日期: 2025-06-15