长江中游地区洪涝灾害韧性时空演变与驱动因素
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X43,P426.616

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四川省自然基金面上项目“青藏高原高寒草甸灌丛化对土壤碳的影响及其驱动机制”(CXTD2020-3);校级创新团队 青藏高原东缘高寒牧区生态保护与高质量发展研究创新团队(CXTD2020-3);校级创新团队(自然灾害与水土保持)(CXTD2023-11)


Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of flood resilience in middle reaches of Yangtze River
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    摘要:

    [目的] 测度区域洪涝灾害韧性水平,探究其空间分异性驱动因素,为增强区域抗灾能力,实现区域可持续发展提供科学支撑。[方法] 运用CRITIC-熵权组合赋权法、地理探测器等方法,从社会、经济、基础设施、环境4个维度构建洪涝灾害韧性综合评价指标体系,对2012—2022年长江中游地区洪涝灾害韧性时空演变及空间分异驱动因素进行分析。[结果] ①2012—2022年长江中游地区洪涝灾害韧性由0.209 1波动增长至0.262 9,仅在2020年出现小幅度下降,洪涝灾害韧性结构由“环境—社会—基础设施—经济”演变为“环境—社会—经济—基础设施”; ②区域内部洪涝灾害韧性差异显著,95.24%的区域为波动增长型,赣州市、吉安市为持续增长型区域;区域内部社会韧性差异逐渐缩小;除恩施州与湘西州外,其余地区经济韧性等级均有上升;25个市州基础设施韧性等级提升;区域西北部环境韧性优于其余地区; ③因子探测结果表明,2012年洪涝灾害韧性空间分异性的主要影响因素为人口密度、地形起伏度和坡度,至2022年转变为最低生活保障人数、规模以上工业企业数量和年末公路通车里程; ④交互因子探测结果表明,人口密度∩第三产业比重为2012年影响力最大的交互因子,至2022年演变为人均GDP∩年末公路通车里程。[结论] 应系统总结、推广城市防洪减灾成功经验,加强各影响因素动态监测,对不稳定因素进行风险评估并及时调整城市发展战略。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] Flood disaster resilience levels of a region and the factors driving their spatial heterogeneity were measured to provide scientific support for enhancing regional disaster resistance and achieving sustainable quality development. [Methods] Using the CRITIC-entropy weight combination and a geographic detector, a comprehensive evaluation index for flood disaster resilience was constructed using four dimensions: society, economy, infrastructure, and environment. Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of the spatial heterogeneity of flood disaster resilience in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2012 to 2022 were analyzed. [Results] ① From 2012 to 2022, flood resilience in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River fluctuated and increased from 0.209 1 to 0.262 9, with only a slight decline in 2020. The structure of flood resilience evolved from ‘environment-society-infrastructure-economy’ to ‘environment-society-economy-infrastructure’. ② Significant differences in flood disaster resilience were observed within the region, with 95.24% of areas exhibiting fluctuating growth. Ganzhou and Ji’an were identified as continuously growing regions. Social resilience differences within the region gradually narrowed. Except for the Enshi and Xiangxi Prefectures, the economic resilience of other areas improved. The infrastructure resilience levels increased in 25 cities and prefectures. Environmental resilience in the northwestern part of the region was better than that in other areas. ③ The results of factor detection showed that the main factors influencing the spatial differentiation of flood resilience in 2012 were population density, terrain relief, and slope. By 2022, these factors had shifted to the number of people receiving minimum living security, the number of large-scale industrial enterprises, and the end-of-year highway mileage. ④ The results of interaction factor detection showed that the most influential interaction factors in 2012 were population density and the ∩ proportion of the tertiary industry. By 2022, it had evolved to per capita GDP ∩ end-of-year highway mileage. [Conclusion] The successful experiences in urban flood prevention and disaster reduction should be summarized and promoted. Dynamic monitoring of various influencing factors should be strengthened. Risk assessments should be conducted for unstable factors, and urban development strategies should be adjusted in a timely manner.

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兰雪,徐瑶,王辉,叶洪铭.长江中游地区洪涝灾害韧性时空演变与驱动因素[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(3):331-342

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  • 收稿日期:2024-10-29
  • 最后修改日期:2025-02-23
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-06-28
  • 出版日期: 2025-06-15