基于土地利用变化的青海省生态系统健康时空演变及情景模拟
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S181,X171.1

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陕西省2023年重点研发计划项目“陕西典型地貌单元植被—土壤—水体固碳能力评估与监测关键技术研究”(2023-ZDLSF-65); 中国地质调查局地质调查项目“秦岭—黄土高原过渡带自然资源要素相互作用与生态退化调查、监测与评价”(DD20220882)


Spatial and temporal evolution of ecosystem health and scenarios modeling in Qinghai Province based on land use change
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    摘要:

    [目的] 分析青海省不同土地利用情景下生态系统健康的时空变化规律,并定量评估在不同自然和人为干扰条件下土地利用变化对青海省生态系统健康的具体影响,为该省生态保护和高质量发展提供理论支撑。[方法] 基于VORS和GMMOP-PLUS模型研究青海省2005—2020年生态系统健康演变格局,并模拟4种发展情景下土地利用变化对生态系统健康的影响程度。[结果] ①青海省生态系统健康空间上呈现出西北低、西南次之,东部高的分布格局,2005—2020年生态系统健康指数从0.292下降至0.252,尤其在东南部和柴达木盆地等区域,生态健康显著下降。耕地和建设用地的快速扩张破坏了生态系统结构,进而导致生态健康水平下降。②基于GMMOP-PLUS模型设定不同自然和社会政策条件,模拟了2030年4种发展情景下〔自然发展(ND)、生态保护(EP)、城镇发展(UD)和综合发展(CD)〕的土地利用变化特征,建设用地均有不同程度增加,其中UD和CD情景中建设用地增幅为3.72×104 hm2,空间上集中在以西宁市城区为中心向四周扩张,且共和县、德令哈市和格尔木市均有不同程度增加。EP情景下生态用地得到有效保护,林地和湿地面积比例最大达7.54%。③4种情景模拟中EP情景下的生态系统健康指数最高(0.256),表明生态保护措施的有效实施,保障林地、湿地等生态用地能显著提升斑块及景观连通性,从而改善生态系统健康,提升生态系统服务功能。[结论] 空间集约化利用是提升生态健康的关键策略,尤其是在城镇化较快的地区。具体措施包括合理规划建设用地,限制土地扩张,提升生态用地的连通性,同时加强生态保护和修复,以促进生态系统的健康恢复和长期稳定。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] Spatiotemporal changes in ecosystem health under different land-use scenarios in Qinghai Province were analyzed, and the specific impacts of land-use change on ecosystem health under different natural and anthropogenic disturbances were quantitatively assessed to provide theoretical support for ecological protection and high-quality development in the province. [Methods] Based on the VORS and GMMOP-PLUS models, the evolutionary pattern of ecosystem health in Qinghai Province from 2005 to 2020 was investigated, and the extent of the impacts of land-use changes on ecosystem health under four development scenarios were simulated. [Results] ① The spatial distribution of ecosystem health in Qinghai Province showed a pattern of low values in the northwest, moderate values in the southwest, and high values in the east. From 2005 to 2020, the ecosystem health index decreased from 0.292 to 0.252, with significant declines in the southeastern regions and Qaidam Basin. Rapid expansion of cultivated and construction land has led to the destruction of ecosystem structures, thereby affecting ecological health. ② Using the GMMOP-PLUS model, land use changes under four development scenarios for 2030 were simulated: Natural Development (ND), Ecological Protection (EP), Urban Development (UD), and Comprehensive Development (CD). Construction land increased to varying degrees in all scenarios, with the largest increases observed for UD and CD scenarios (3.72×10⁴ hm²), concentrated around Xining City and expanding to Gonghe County, Delingha City, and Golmud City. Under the EP scenario, the ecological land was effectively protected, with the proportion of forest and wetland areas reaching a maximum of 7.54%. ③ Among the four scenarios, the EP scenario showed the highest ecosystem health index (0.256), indicating that the effective implementation of ecological protection measures, such as safeguarding forest and wetland areas, significantly improved patch and landscape connectivity, thereby enhancing ecosystem health and service functions. [Conclusion] Spatially intensive utilization is a key strategy for improving ecological health, particularly in regions experiencing rapid urbanization. Specific measures include the rational planning of construction land, restricting land expansion, enhancing the connectivity of ecological land, and strengthening ecological protection and restoration to promote the recovery and long-term stability of ecosystems.

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马泽钰,邢延军,王勇为,翟军华,李鹏,王博.基于土地利用变化的青海省生态系统健康时空演变及情景模拟[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(3):165-178

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  • 收稿日期:2024-08-19
  • 最后修改日期:2025-02-11
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-06-28
  • 出版日期: 2025-06-15