［Objective］ The value of ecosystem services in China was assessed quantitatively， and integrated with uncertainty to achieve dynamic prediction of regional ecological risks， in order to provide a scientific basis for climate change adaptation policy formulation， territorial spatial planning， ecological environmental protection， economic transformation， and regional risk management. ［Methods］ The LUH2 data and PLUS model were coupled to simulate China’s land use patterns under sustainable development （SSP119）， current moderate development （SSP245） pathway， and high-speed development （SSP585） scenarios in 2030. Construction land was incorporated， and the modified equivalent factor method was used to estimate the ecosystem service value （ESV）. The Sharpe ratio was employed to predict regional ecological risks. ［Results］ ① The PLUS model demonstrated high accuracy， with a kappa coefficient of 0.90 and an overall accuracy （OA） of 0.93. Under different scenarios， the area changes in land use types varied significantly， but the spatial distribution was relatively similar. The aggregation effect of land types was evident， gradually changing from southeast to northwest. ② In 2030， ESV under the three scenarios were 2.188 × 10¹³， 2.176 × 10¹³， and 2.170 × 10¹³ yuan， respectively. Influenced by land use patterns， the ESV per unit area followed a spatial distribution of higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest， while individual ecosystem services exhibited an overall consistency with localized variations. ③ Future ecological risks in China are predominantly low to medium， with 84.47%—90.46% of cities classified within this range. Among the three scenarios， sustainable development had the highest proportion of low and relatively low-risk areas， whereas high-speed development had the largest proportion of high and relatively high-risk areas. ［Conclusion］ A sustainable development pathway is the optimal choice for balancing economic growth and ecological protection， effectively reducing regional ecological risks. The current moderate development pathway provides moderate ecosystem stability. In contrast， a high-speed development model reliant on fossil fuels threatens ecosystem stability and increases the risk of ecological degradation.