[Objective] This study aims to reveal the spatial heterogeneity patterns of land use within the New Western Land-Sea Corridor Region, simulate future land use patterns under different policy orientations, and provide a scientific basis for coordinating regional ecological conservation with economic development and optimizing territorial spatial layout. [Methods] Land use intensity indices were calculated from 2002 to 2022. Spatial autocorrelation analysis, the Optimal Parameters-based Geographical Detector (OPGD), and the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model were employed to analyze spatial heterogeneity and its driving factors. Subsequently,?the PLUS model (Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model) was used to simulate land use patterns for 2032 under four scenarios: Natural Development, Cropland Protection, Economic Development, and Sustainable Development. [Results] ① Over the 20-year period, regional land use intensity remained generally stable at a moderate level. The proportion of underutilized land categories exhibited the greatest increase, displaying a spatial pattern characterized by "core expansion, ecological constraints, and axial agglomeration". ② Changes in land use intensity showed significant positive spatial autocorrelation. High-high agglomeration areas expanded from a single core to multi-core linkages, while low-low agglomeration areas remained persistently locked in ecologically sensitive zones. Driving factors demonstrated significant spatial heterogeneity: expressway density had a positive effect; slope, mean annual precipitation, and urban disposable income exerted negative effects; mean annual temperature, population density, railway density, and road freight volume exhibited both positive and negative effects. ③ Multi-scenario simulations indicated that the Sustainable Development scenario yielded the optimal outcomes: the increase in construction land slowed to 48.35%, forest area grew by 2.64%, and the decline in cropland area moderated to 6.37%. [Conclusion] Land use changes in the New Western Land-Sea Corridor Region result from the spatial interplay between natural constraints and strategic development imperatives. Future strategies should establish an "axial linkage and multi-core synergy" development model, implement "eco-priority" spatial governance, and strengthen corridor-hinterland coordination to transition from pursuing "corridor throughput" to achieving "sustainable development gains".