汾河流域耕地利用碳排放效率与粮食安全耦合协调时空演变及其驱动因素
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S17,K90

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2024年度山西省新型智库专项课题“统筹汾河流域粮食安全与低碳农业协同发展的对策研究”(2024ZK033); 山西省自然科学研究面上项目“基于WRF模式的山西省区域极端强降水事件分类归因研究”(202403021221174)


Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of coupling coordination between carbon emission efficiency of cultivated land use and food security in Fenhe River basin
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    摘要:

    [目的] 探讨汾河流域耕地利用碳排放效率与粮食安全耦合协调的时空演变特征及驱动因素,为提升汾河流域耕地利用碳排放效率与粮食安全耦合协调水平提供决策参考。[方法] 利用非期望产出超效率SBM模型和熵权法分别对2005—2021年汾河流域耕地利用碳排放效率与粮食安全进行测度及时空特征分析,在此基础上运用耦合协调度模型和参数最优地理探测器探讨了二者的耦合协调性及其驱动因素。[结果] ①耕地利用碳排放效率各县差异明显,大部分县区仍处于中低等效率。②汾河流域粮食安全水平整体呈“上升—下降—上升”的趋势;高值区主要集中在东北部以及南部地区,低值区主要位于汾河流域上游、太原市区以及灵霍山峡地区。③汾河流域耕地利用碳排放效率与粮食安全的耦合协调水平总体偏低,空间上呈现“上游低、中下游高”的分布特征。处于失调衰退阶段的县区主要以碳排放效率滞后型为主,处于过渡发展阶段的县区主要以粮食安全滞后型为主。④人均耕地面积、城市化率和人口规模是影响碳排放效率与粮食安全耦合协调水平的主要驱动因子。[结论] 汾河流域各县区应瞄准差异方向,提升短板,在优化耕地利用的同时加强农业科技支持与政策引导,最终实现二者同步协调发展。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics and driving factors of coupling coordination between the carbon emission efficiency of cultivated land use and food security in the Fenhe River basin were explored, in order to provide decision-making references for improving the level of coupling coordination. [Methods] The undesired output super-efficiency SBM model and entropy weight method were used to measure the carbon emission efficiency and food security in the Fenhe River basin from 2005 to 2021. Next, the spatiotemporal characteristics were analyzed. On this basis, coupling coordination and its driving factors were discussed using the coupling coordination degree model and an optimal parameter-based geographic detector model. [Results] ① The carbon emission efficiency of cultivated land use varied significantly among counties; most counties still had mid-and low levels of efficiency. ② The level of food security in the Fenhe River basin showed a trend of “increase-decrease-increase.” The high-value areas were primarily concentrated in the northeast and southern regions, while the low-value areas were located mainly in the upper reaches of the Fenhe River basin, the urban area of Taiyuan City, and the gorge region of Linghuo Mountain. ③ The level of coupling coordination between carbon emission efficiency and food security in the Fenhe River basin was relatively low, showing a spatial distribution feature of “low in the upstream and high in the middle and lower reaches.” Counties in the stage of imbalanced degradation were mostly characterized by lagging carbon emission efficiency, while those in the phase of transitional development were chiefly characterized by lagging food security. ④ Per capita cultivated land area, urbanization rate, and population size were the primary driving factors affecting the level of coupling coordination between carbon emission efficiency and food security. [Conclusion] Counties in the Fenhe River basin should focus on differences, improve the short boards, and optimize cultivated land use while strengthening support for agricultural science as well as technological and policy-related guidance, ultimately achieving simultaneous and coordinated development of the two.

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李曼,王梦竹,刘焕才,王超,菅凯.汾河流域耕地利用碳排放效率与粮食安全耦合协调时空演变及其驱动因素[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(2):262-271

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  • 收稿日期:2024-10-18
  • 最后修改日期:2024-11-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-05-16
  • 出版日期: 2025-04-15