[Objective] The relationship between new quality productivity forces and agricultural carbon emission intensity was explored, the operational mechanisms and regional differences were revealed, in order to provide a scientific basis and data support for the synchronization of new quality productivity and green development. [Methods] A bidirectional fixed regression model was used to explore the relationship between new quality productivity forces and agricultural carbon emissions using provincial panel data of China from 2012 to 2022. A threshold model was then used to analyze the role of the rural-urban income gap in the effect of new quality productivity forces on agricultural carbon emissions. [Results] ① An inverted N-shaped relationship was found between new quality productivity forces and agricultural carbon emission intensity; that is, the effect of new quality productivity forces on agricultural carbon emissions first decreased, then increased, and finally decreased again. ② A threshold effect exists: regions with smaller urban-rural income gaps exhibit stronger emission reduction effects from new quality productivity forces. ③ The effect of new quality productive forces on agricultural carbon emission intensity differed among regions. The inverted “N” relationship was strong in the eastern region and insignificant in the central region, showing an “N” type relationship in the western region. [Conclusion] It is recommend obtaining an in-depth understanding of the phases of the characteristics of new quality productivity forces to facilitate their alignment with the development of low-carbon agriculture and enhance the emission reduction effects of new quality productive. The urban-rural income gap should be narrowed by increasing farmer incomes, thereby incentivizing technological and equipment upgrades among farmers and strengthening the emission reduction effect of new quality productive forces. Furthermore, regional differences should be recognized to help align new quality productive forces with the actual conditions in various regions and reduce agricultural carbon emission in agreement to local conditions.