内蒙古森林碳汇核算与生态产品价值实现路径选择
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1.内蒙古自治区社会科学院;2.内蒙古财经大学

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X196

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内蒙古社会科学基金项目“内蒙古生态产品价值实现机制创新研究”(2024EY09);内蒙古教育厅一流学科科研专项项目“生态产品价值核算及转化的路径及模式研究”(YLXKZX-NCD-015);内蒙古自然科学基金项目“牧区经济与草地生态耦合共生的时空交互效应测度研究”(2023QN07010);内蒙古社会科学基金项目“内蒙古生态建设与农牧民增收双赢路径及对策研究”(2025DY17)


Accounting for Forest Carbon Sequestration and Path Selection for Realizing Ecological Product Value in Inner Mongolia
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    摘要:

    [目的]森林碳汇功能在应对全球气温变暖和调节区域碳循环方面起着关键性作用,核算森林碳汇价值、探究生态产品价值实现路径对于经济-生态协调发展具有重要意义。[方法]以内蒙古12盟市为研究区,以2009-2023年为研究区间,运用固碳速率法、最优价格法、碳税法和固定CO2的造林成本法,对森林碳汇量和价值进行核算与时空演变格局分析,并利用多元回归模型、灰色系统关联度模型对价值影响因素和因子关联度进行测算,进而探索森林碳汇生态产品价值实现路径。[结果]①内蒙古各盟市森林碳汇量均实现显著增长,且以2014年增长最为明显,总增幅大部分介于160.00%-200.00%,乌海、巴彦淖尔和乌兰察布市超过250.00%,鄂尔多斯市高达50余倍。②各盟市森林碳汇价值时间上整体呈现增长趋势且以偏中部地区增速最快,空间上呈现“东高西低且东北部最高、中部由南北两端向中心递减、西部由西北向东南递减”的演变格局。③由于各盟市地理位置、产业结构、政策导向、林龄结构等的不同,影响因素的作用方式和影响程度具有显著的空间异质性;乌海市、巴彦淖尔市、兴安盟和呼伦贝尔市的因素关联程度较大,阿拉善盟、呼和浩特市和赤峰市的因素关联度较小,关键影响因素包括经济发展状况、降水、林业产值、森林覆盖度和森林投资规模。[结论]提出内蒙古森林碳汇产品价值实现路径:聚焦生态产品“度量难”问题,完善科学的生态产品价值评估体系;提高森林资源的主体生产力,健全森林资源全周期管理机制;因地制宜建立森林碳汇产业和生态产品开发的支持制度,依据区域差异性探索多元生态产品价值的实现模式。研究结果对深入理解森林碳汇价值变化内在机理,推动森林生态产品可持续经营管理和价值实现提供重要参考和借鉴。

    Abstract:

    [Purpose] The effect of the forest carbon sequestration plays a crucial role in responding to global warming and regulating the regional carbon cycle. Accounting the value of forest carbon sequestration and exploring the path of ecological product value realization has a significant influence on coordinated economic-ecological development. [Method] The 12 league cities in Inner Mongolia were taken as the study area, and the period from 2009 to 2023 was taken as the study period. A multi-metric framework integrating the carbon sequestration rate method, optimal pricing method, carbon tax method, and afforestation cost method for CO2 fixation was developed to quantify forest carbon sinks and their spatiotemporal value dynamics. A hybrid analytical framework combining multiple regression models and grey relational analysis is also constructed to quantify the determinants of value and their synergistic effects, with the aim of identifying scalable mechanisms for monetizing forest carbon sink ecological products. [Consequence] ①The forest carbon sink of all league cities in Inner Mongolia has achieved significant growth, and the most obvious rate is in 2014, with the total increase of 160.00%-200.00%. Wuhai City, Bayan Nur City and Ulanqab City has the rate more than 250.00%, and Ordos more than 50 times. ②The forest carbon sink value across prefecture-level cities exhibited an overall temporal growth trend, with centrally located regions demonstrating the most rapid growth rates. Spatially, it formed an evolution pattern characterized by 'higher values in the east and lower in the west and peaking in the northeast, decreasing from northern and southern extremities toward the center in midland areas, and declining from northwest to southeast in western regions'. ③ Due to the difference of geographical locations, industrial structures, policy orientations and forest age structures between league cities, the influencing factors exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity in both their operational mechanisms and impact intensity. Specifically, Wuhai City, Bayan Nur City, Hinggan League, and Hulunbuir City demonstrate stronger inter-factor correlations, while Alxa League, Hohhot City, and Chifeng City show relatively weaker associations among factors. The main influencing factors include economic development, precipitation, forestry output value, forest coverage and scale of forest investment. [Conclusion] This paper proposes the path to realize the value of forest carbon sequestration products in Inner Mongolia: Addressing the quantification challenges of ecological products by establishing a scientific valuation framework; enhancing the primary productivity of forest resources and institutionalizing full-cycle management mechanisms; developing region-specific supporting institutions for forest carbon sink industries and eco-product development, while exploring diversified value realization models adapted to regional disparities. The findings provide critical references and practical insights for unraveling the intrinsic mechanisms underlying forest carbon sink value dynamics, thereby advancing sustainable management and value realization of forest ecological products.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-07
  • 最后修改日期:2025-06-03
  • 录用日期:2025-06-04
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