基于WEP-ISF模型的黄河源区径流演变分析
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1.青海大学土木水利学院;2.黄河上游生态保护与高质量发展实验室;3.水利部江河源区水生态治理与保护重点实验室;4.中国水利水电科学研究院 北京

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P333

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国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3206303);清华大学-宁夏银川水联网数字治水联合研究院专项统筹重点项目(SKL-IOW-2023TC2309)


Runoff evolution analysis in the source region of the Yellow River based on WEP-ISF model
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    摘要:

    [目的]量化径流深中各因素产流量的占比及构成,定量分析黄河源区下垫面、气候和工农业用水变化对径流变化的贡献率,为黄河流域生态环境保护和水资源开发奠定基础。[方法]研究利用分布式水热耦合模型WEP-ISF分析不同时期黄河源区月均流量,以及实际蒸散发、土壤温度、土壤含水量和径流成分动态变化过程,并运用多因素归因分析方法剖析各影响因素对径流量变化的贡献。[结果]结果表明,WEP-ISF模型较好刻画了黄河源区流域水文及水热变化过程。土壤温度模拟值与遥感解译值的平均绝对百分比误差在69.78%~171.55%之间,Nash效率系数均超过0.70。土壤表层含水量模拟值与遥感解译值的平均绝对百分比误差在13.94%~20.97%之间,Nash效率系数基本达到0.5以上。月平均流量模拟值与实测值Nash效率系数和平均绝对百分比误差分别为0.80和25.85%,实际蒸散发模拟值与遥感解译值Nash效率系数和平均绝对百分比误差分别为0.80和53.39%。冰川、融雪和降水产流多年平均为0.9mm、14.9mm和70.5mm,分别占黄河源区径流深的1.0%、17.3%和81.7%。变化期1991-2021年相比于基准期1970-1990年,冰川、融雪和降水产流变化量1.48mm、-3.8mm、-13.2mm, 分别占黄河源区径流深变化量的贡献率分别为9.53%、-24.48%和-85.05%。唐乃亥多年平均径流量减少67.65亿m3,其中气候、下垫面以及工农业用水变化影响的贡献率分别为96.46%、2.49%和1.05%。[结论]在影响黄河源区径流变化的诸多因素中,气候因素是导致黄河源区径流衰减的主要驱动因子,其具体表现为冰川融水产流呈现增多趋势,而融雪产流和降水产流呈减少趋势。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] Quantifying the proportion and composition of each factor in runoff depth, quantitatively analyzing the contribution rate of underlying surface, climate and industrial and agricultural water use change to runoff change in the source area of the Yellow River, laying a foundation for ecological environment protection and water resources development in the Yellow River basin.[Methods] Based on the distributed hydrothermal coupling model WEP-ISF model, the paper analyzed the monthly mean discharge and the dynamic changes of actual evapotranspiration, soil temperature, soil water content and runoff composition in the source area of the Yellow River in different periods, and analyzed the contribution of each influencing factor to the change of runoff by using multi-factor attribution analysis method. [Results] The results showed that the WEP-ISF model could describe the hydrological process and hydrothermal process of the Yellow River source basin well. The mean absolute percentage error between the simulated soil temperature and the interpreted soil temperature was 69.78%~171.55%, and the Nash efficiency coefficient was more than 0.70. The mean absolute percentage error between simulated and interpreted values of soil surface water content is between 13.94% and 20.97%, and the Nash efficiency coefficient exceeds 0.5. Specifically, the Nash efficiency coefficient for the simulated and measured monthly average flow is 0.80, and the mean absolute percentage error is 25.85%.The Nash efficiency coefficient and the mean absolute percentage error of the simulated evapotranspiration value and the interpreted remote sensing value were 0.80 and 53.39%, respectively. The annual average of glacier, snowmelt and fall-off water flow is 0.9mm, 14.9mm and 70.5mm, accounting for 1.0%, 17.3% and 81.7% of the source runoff depth of the Yellow River, respectively. Compared with the baseline period of 1970-1990, the annual average runoff of Tangnahai decreased by 6.675 billion m3 during 1991-2021, the changes of glacier, snowmelt and water flow were 1.48mm, -3.8mm and -13.2mm, which accounted for 9.53%, -24.48% and -85.05% of the changes of runoff depth in the source area of the Yellow River, respectively.And the contribution rates of climate, underlying surface and socio-economic water use change were 96.46%, 2.49% and 1.05%, respectively. [Conclusion] Among the many factors affecting the runoff change in the source area of the Yellow River, the climate factor is the main driving factor leading to the runoff attenuation in the source area of the Yellow River, which is manifested in the trend of increasing glacier melt water flow and decreasing trend of snowmelt runoff and runoff.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-03
  • 最后修改日期:2025-03-23
  • 录用日期:2025-03-24
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