第一批低碳试点城市土地利用碳排放的脱钩效应与影响因素分析
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西南大学资源环境学院

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F301.2;X24

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国家自然科学基金青年项目(72004187).


Decoupling Effect and Influencing Factors of Land -Use Carbon Emissions in the First Batch of Low-carbon Pilot Cities
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The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan)

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    摘要:

    [目的]探究土地利用碳排放与经济的脱钩关系及土地利用碳排放的影响因素,为协调城市土地利用碳减排与经济发展的关系提供理论依据。[方法]以中国第一批低碳试点城市为研究区,分析2005-2020年试点城市土地利用碳排放的演变趋势,运用Tapio脱钩模型刻画土地利用净碳排放与经济发展的脱钩关系,采用LMDI分解法剖析土地利用净碳排放的影响因素。[结果](1)2005-2020年间第一批批低碳试点城市整体上净碳排放呈现逐年快速增长的趋势,由2005年的7737.15万吨增长至2020年的18039.08万吨。(2)试点城市整体脱钩指数在研究期内逐步减小,表明经济发展水平的提高对于土地利用碳排放的依赖性呈下降趋势。2015-2020年间,天津市土地利用碳排放与经济呈现理想的强脱钩状态,而保定市则呈现不理想的扩张性负脱钩,其余6个城市则表现为弱脱钩,由此反映出协调试点城市土地利用碳排放与经济的关系仍有较大的发展空间。(3)影响土地利用碳排放的正向因素依次为:经济发展水平>土地利用结构>人口密度>土地总面积;负向因素依次为:土地利用经济效率>地类碳排放强度。[结论]试点城市经济与土地利用碳排放的脱钩状态区域差异较大,且土地利用碳排放的影响因素也有所区别,建议结合影响因素制定差异化的低碳经济发展方案。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The decoupling relationship between land-use carbon emission and economic development and the influencing factors of land-use carbon emission are explored, in order to provide theoretical basis for coordinating the relationship between urban land-use carbon emission reduction and economic development. [Methods] Taking the first batch of low-carbon pilot cities in China as the study area, this study analyzes the evolution trend of land-use carbon emissions in the pilot cities from 2005 to 2020. Based on the Tapio decoupling model, the decoupling relationship between net land-use carbon emissions and economic development is explored, and the influencing factors of net land-use carbon emissions are investigated by employing the LMDI model. [Results](1) The net carbon emissions of the first batch of low-carbon pilot cities in the period of 2005-2020 show a rapid growth trend, increasing from 77.3715 million tons in 2005 to 180.3908 million tons in 2020. (2) The overall decoupling index of the pilot cities gradually decreases during the study period, indicating that the dependence of economic development on land-use carbon emissions is on a downward trend. During the period from 2015 to 2020, the land-use carbon emissions of Tianjin City present a desirable strong decoupling state from the economic development, while Baoding City shows an undesirable expansive negative decoupling state, and the remaining six cities show a weak decoupling state. This reflects that there is still big room for improvement in coordinating the relationship between land-use carbon emissions and economic development in the pilot cities. (3) Positive factors affecting land-use carbon emissions in descending order are: economic development level > land use structure > population density > total land area; negative factors are ranked as follows: economic efficiency of land use > carbon emission intensity of land type. [Conclusion] The decoupling status and the influencing factors of land-use carbon emissions in pilot cities vary significantly across regions, thus regionally differentiated low-carbon economic development strategies in combination with the influencing factors should be formulated.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-03
  • 最后修改日期:2025-03-24
  • 录用日期:2025-03-25
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