[Objective] Quantitatively evaluating the ecosystem services value (ESV) and integrating it with uncertainty to achieve dynamic prediction of regional ecological risks (ER) is of great reference significance for China's sustainable development. [Method] Coupling LUH2 data and the PLUS model to simulate the China’s land use pattern in 2030 under the scenarios of SSP119, SSP245 and SSP585, and then integrating the construction land and using the modified equivalent factor method to estimate ESV, and predicting the regional ecological risk by the sharpe ratio. [Results] ① The PLUS model shows good accuracy with Kappa coefficient of 0.90 and OA of 0.93. The changes of land use types under different scenarios are obviously different, but the spatial distribution is relatively similar; meanwhile, the clustering effect of land use is obvious, gradually changing from southeast to northwest. ② Under the SSP119, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios, the ESV of China in 2030 are 21.875×10^4 billion yuan, 21.757×10^4 billion yuan and 21.697×10^4 billion yuan, respectively. Affected by the land use pattern, the ESV per unit area shows a spatial pattern of "high in the southeast and low in the northwest", and each ESV per unit area shows the characteristics of "overall consistency and local differences". ③ The future ER in China is mainly lower, low, and medium, and the number of cities accounts for 84.47% to 90.46%. Under the SSP119 scenario, the low and lower risk areas account for the largest proportion; while the high and higher risk areas account for the largest proportion under the SSP585 scenario. [Conclusion] SSP119 represents the path of sustainable development, it is the optimal choice to balance economic development and ecological protection, which can effectively reduce regional ecological risks. SSP245 represents the continuation of the current development path, which means the stability of the ecosystem is at an intermediate level. SSP585 represents a high-speed economic development path mainly dominated by fossil fuels, which is not conducive to the stability of the ecosystem and poses a risk of ecological degradation.