[ Objective ] New quality productive forces has become one of the important ways to achieve high-quality agricultural development and carbon emission reduction.How to reduce agricultural carbon emission reduction through new quality productive forces is explored, so as to provide a basis for the simultaneous development of new quality productive forces and green development. [ Methods ] Based on the provincial panel data from 2012 to 2022, this paper uses a bidirectional fixed regression model to explore the relationship between new quality productive forces and agricultural carbon emissions. Then, the threshold model is used to analyze the threshold role of rural-urban income gap in influencing the effect of new quality productive forces on agricultural carbon emissions. [ Result ] ①There is an inverted N-shaped relationship between new quality productive forces and agricultural carbon emission intensity, that is, the effect of new quality productive forces on agricultural carbon emission is a process of first decreasing, then rising, and then decreasing. ②There is a threshold effect on the impact of new quality productivity on agricultural carbon emission intensity. The smaller the income gap between urban and rural residents in the region, the stronger the role of new quality productivity in reducing agricultural carbon emission intensity. ③There are obvious regional differences in the effect of new quality productive forces on agricultural carbon emission intensity, and the inverted "N" relationship is obvious in the eastern region, no significant in the central region, and an "N" type relationship in the western region. [ Conclusion ] It is recommended to precisely grasp the phased characteristics of new quality productive forces, facilitate its alignment with the development of low-carbon agriculture, and enhance the emission reduction effect of new quality productive forces. Emphasis should be placed on narrowing the urban-rural income gap by increasing farmers' income, thereby incentivizing technological and equipment upgrades among farmers and elevating the emission reduction effect of new quality productive forces. Furthermore, regional differences should be clearly recognized, guiding new quality productive forces to align with the actual conditions of various regions and achieving agricultural carbon emission reductions according to local conditions.