长江中游地区洪涝灾害韧性时空演变与驱动因素探测
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西华师范大学 地理科学学院

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中图分类号:

GS(2024)0650

基金项目:

四川省科技厅基础应用项目(2023NSFSC0193)


The Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Flood Resilience in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River
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Affiliation:

School of Geographical Sciences,China West Normal University

Fund Project:

Basic Application Project of Sichuan Provincial Department of Science and Technology (2023NSFSC0193)

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    摘要:

    [目的]洪涝灾害是长江中游地区最主要的自然灾害之一。测度区域洪涝灾害韧性水平、探究其空间分异性驱动因素,对于增强区域抗灾能力,实现区域可持续质量发展至关重要。[方法]文章运用CRITIC-熵权组合赋权法、地理探测器等方法,从社会、经济、基础设施、环境4个维度构建洪涝灾害韧性综合评价指标体系,对2012-2022年长江中游地区洪涝灾害韧性时空演变及空间分异驱动因素进行分析。[结果](1)研究期间,长江中游地区洪涝灾害韧性由0.2091波动增长至0.2629,仅在2020年出现小幅度下降,洪涝灾害韧性结构由“环境-社会-基础设施-经济”演变为“环境-社会-经济-基础设施”;(2)区域内部洪涝灾害韧性差异显著,95.24%的区域为波动增长型,赣州市、吉安市为持续增长型区域;区域内部社会韧性差异逐渐缩小;除恩施州与湘西州外,其余地区经济韧性等级均有上升;25个市州基础设施韧性等级提升;区域西北部环境韧性优于其余地区;(3)因子探测结果表明,2012年洪涝灾害韧性空间分异性的主要影响因素为人口密度、地形起伏度和坡度,至2022年转变为最低生活保障人数、规模以上工业企业数量和年末公路通车里程;(4)交互因子探测结果表明,人口密度∩第三产业比重为2012年影响力最大的交互因子,至2022年演变为人均GDP∩年末公路通车里程。[结论]研究结果可为城市抗洪救灾政策提供参考。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] Flood disasters are one of the most significant natural disasters in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Measuring the flood disaster resilience levels of the region and exploring the driving factors of their spatial heterogeneity are crucial for enhancing regional disaster resistance and achieving sustainable quality development.[Methods] This paper employs the CRITIC-Entropy Weight Combined Weighting Method and the Geographical Detector, among other methods, to construct a comprehensive flood disaster resilience evaluation index system from four dimensions: society, economy, infrastructure, and environment. It analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution and spatial heterogeneity driving factors of flood disaster resilience in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2012 to 2022. [Results] (1) During the study period, the flood resilience in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River fluctuated and increased from 0.2091 to 0.2629, with only a slight decline in 2020. The structure of flood resilience evolved from “environment–society–infrastructure–economy” to “environment–society–economy–infrastructure”.(2) There are significant differences in flood resilience within the region. 95.24% of the areas are characterized by fluctuating increases. Ganzhou and Ji'an are regions with sustained growth. The differences in social resilience within the region are gradually narrowing. Except for Enshi and Xiangxi, the economic resilience levels of other regions have improved. The infrastructure resilience levels of 25 cities and prefectures have been enhanced. The environmental resilience in the northwestern part of the region is better than that in other areas.(3) The results of factor detection show that the main factors influencing the spatial differentiation of flood resilience in 2012 were population density, terrain relief, and slope. By 2022, these factors had shifted to the number of people receiving minimum living security, the number of large-scale industrial enterprises, and the end-of-year highway mileage.(4) The results of interaction factor detection show that the most influential interaction factor in 2012 was population density ∩ proportion of the tertiary industry. By 2022, it had evolved to per capita GDP ∩ end-of-year highway mileage. [Conclusion] The research results can provide references for urban flood control and disaster relief policies.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-10-29
  • 最后修改日期:2025-02-23
  • 录用日期:2025-02-24
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