基于多源降水融合的江苏省降雨侵蚀力时空特征分析
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1.江苏省水利科学研究院;2.南京市高淳区水务局

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江苏省水利科技项目(Z2022041),江苏省水利科学研究院自主科研经费专项资金项目(2023Z046)


Analysis of spatiotemporal characteristics of rainfall erosivity based on multi-source precipitation fusion in Jiangsu Province
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    摘要:

    [目的]降雨侵蚀力是评估土壤侵蚀的重要指标,为有效解决气象站点和卫星降水产品估算降雨侵蚀力存在空间分异性和精度差等问题。[方法]基于江苏省96个气象观测站点的降雨数据和GPM IMERG、ERA5降水产品,研发了一种基于站点-卫星降水融合的降雨侵蚀力计算方法,重建了江苏省2001-2023年降雨侵蚀力,并进一步研究其侵蚀密度及易发区划分。[结果]①该方法具有一定的可靠性,融合降雨侵蚀力相较于卫星降雨侵蚀力和站点降雨侵蚀力,具有较高的相关系数、较小的偏差和均方根误差,能有效捕捉降雨侵蚀力的高值,减少不确定性和误差;②江苏省多年平均降雨侵蚀力为4709.39 MJ·mm/(hm2·h·a),空间分布为北低南高,季节差异明显,夏季多冬季少,春秋基本一致;③2001-2023年江苏省年降雨侵蚀力呈增加趋势,气候倾向率季节存在差异,春季和夏季研究区南部呈显著的增加趋势,北部呈不显著的下降趋势,冬季反之;④江苏省年侵蚀密度为4.96 MJ/(hm2·h),空间分布呈北高南低,降雨侵蚀最易发区为徐州东部、连云港北部和镇江西部、南京北部零星地区,不易受侵蚀的区域为扬州、泰州和南通东部地区。[结论]研究结果可为区域降雨侵蚀预测、土壤流失防治和水土保持措施制定提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] Rainfall erosivity is an important index to evaluate soil erosion, to solve the problems of spatial differentiation and poor accuracy in estimating rainfall erosivity by meteorological stations and satellite precipitation products. [Methods] This research developed a station-satellite fusion calculation method of rainfall erosivity based on the rainfall data of 96 meteorological stations and precipitation products of GPM IMERG and ERA5. The rainfall erosivity of Jiangsu Province from 2001 to 2023 was reconstructed, and its erosivity density and prone area division were further studied. [Results]① This method was reliable because the fusion rainfall erosivity had a higher correlation coefficient, lower deviation, and lower root mean square error compared with rainfall erosivity calculated by satellite and station. This method will capture the high value of rainfall erosivity and reduce uncertainty and error. ② The mean annual rainfall erosivity in Jiangsu Province from 2001 to 2023 was 4709.39 MJ·mm/(hm2·h·a) and the spatial distribution was low in the north and high in the south. Seasonal rainfall ?erosivity was obviously different: more in summer and less in winter, and the same in spring and autumn. ③ The annual rainfall erosivity in Jiangsu Province showed an increasing trend from 2001 to 2023. The climate tendency rate showed a significant increasing trend in the south of Jiangsu Province and an insignificant decreasing trend in the north in spring and summer, which was the opposite in winter. ④ The annual erosivity density of Jiangsu Province was 4.96 MJ/(hm2·h), and the spatial distribution was high in the north and low in the south. The most vulnerable areas of rainfall erosivity were the east of Xuzhou, the north of Lianyungang, the west of Zhenjiang and the northern part of Nanjing. The less vulnerable areas were Yangzhou, Taizhou and the eastern part of Nantong. [Conclusion] The research can provide scientific basis for regional rainfall erosion prediction, soil loss prevention and soil and water conservation measures.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-10-21
  • 最后修改日期:2025-01-06
  • 录用日期:2025-01-06
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