[Objective] Exploring the coupling and coordination status of agricultural ecological security and food security can provide decision-making reference for improving agricultural ecological security, food security, and coordinated development of the two in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. [Methods] Using 11 provinces (cities) in the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research scale, the paper uses the entropy weight method, comprehensive index model, coupling degree model, coupling coordination degree model, grey correlation degree model, grey prediction model, and exponential smoothing model to quantitatively analyze the coupling coordination level, coupling coordination development level, influencing factors, and future trends of agricultural ecological security and food security. [Results] ① From 2002 to 2022, the comprehensive index of agricultural ecological security and food security in most provinces of the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed a significant fluctuation trend. The gap in the level of comprehensive index of agricultural ecological security and food security between provinces first narrowed and then expanded, and the overall gap between samples was not significant. ②From a temporal perspective, the coupling coordination degree of various provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has fluctuated significantly from 2002 to 2022, showing an overall upward trend, with most coupling coordination levels rising to a more optimal level. In terms of spatial dimension, the overall distribution characteristics show a relatively low upstream, low midstream, high downstream, and significant regional differences. ③Agricultural ecological security and food security are a coupled and interactive system, and both the agricultural ecological security subsystem and the food security subsystem have an impact on the degree of coupling coordination. The impact of the provincial grain security subsystem in the Yangtze River Economic Belt on the coupling coordination degree is higher. ④Using exponential smoothing method to predict the coupling coordination degree of provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt for the next five years, different provinces show different trends, with both upward and slightly downward trends. [Conclusion] Provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt should adapt to local conditions, further enhance the synergy and linkage of internal and external factors on the basis of filling in the shortcomings and weaknesses of the subsystems, and ultimately achieve the benign coordinated development of the two.