2000—2021年黄河流域化肥使用量与粮食产量时空变化特征
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1.安阳师范学院资源环境与旅游学院;2.衢州学院

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河南省哲学社会科学规划项目“气候变化对河南省农业生产率影响效应研究”(2022BJJ003);河南省科技攻关项目“基于多源数据的河南省农业干旱动态变化与驱动机制研究”(232102320024);安阳市科技发展计划项目“近62年安阳市气候变化及其对农业生产的影响研究”(2022C01NY019)


Spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of fertilizer application and grain yield in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2021
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Quzhou University,Quzhou Zhejiang

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    摘要:

    [目的]研究黄河流域化肥使用时空变化特征及其与粮食生产的关系,为流域化肥施用管控提供理论依据。[方法]基于2000—2021年黄河流域化肥使用量和粮食产量相关数据,采用空间自相关分析、核密度分析和标准差椭圆等方法对黄河流域化肥使用的时空变化特征进行了分析,并探讨化肥使用量和粮食产量的关系。[结果] 近22年黄河流域粮食产量增长49.55%,大于化肥使用量增速(24.87%),2013年后流域化肥使用量开始波动下降,粮食产量依然保持增长趋势,化肥使用效率明显提升。近22年来黄河流域化肥使用的区域集聚态势在持续减弱,黄河流域化肥使用量在空间上具有一定的非均衡性,热点区域主要集中在河南和山东,冷点区域集中在青海和甘肃,22年来黄河流域化肥使用热点区域减少,高值聚集区向西移动,冷点区域增加。近22年来黄河流域上中下游地区化肥使用量分别增长46.52%、38.68%和9.5%,西部地区化肥使用量快速增长,推动了流域化肥使用重心向北西西方向移动57.40km。近22年来黄河流域粮食产量重心向北北西方向移动22.06km,与化肥使用量重心趋于分离。[结论]黄河流域化肥减量增效行动成效显著,但整体化肥使用强度仍为超标状态,未来仍需减少化肥使用。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The spatiotemporal variation characteristics of chemical fertilizer use in the Yellow River Basin and its relationship with grain production were analyzed in order to provide theoretical basis for the control of chemical fertilizer application in the basin. [Methods] Based on the data of fertilizer application and grain yield in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2021, the spatial autocorrelation analysis, kernel density analysis and ellipse of standard deviation were used to analyze the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of fertilizer use in the Yellow River Basin, and to explore the relationship between fertilizer use and grain yield. [Results] In the past 22 years, the grain yield in the Yellow River Basin has increased by 49.55%, which was greater than the growth rate of chemical fertilizer application (24.87%). After 2013, the chemical fertilizers application in the basin began to fluctuate and decrease, while grain yield still maintained a growth trend, and the efficiency of fertilizer application has significantly improved. In the past 22 years, the regional agglomeration trend of chemical fertilizer application in the Yellow River Basin has been continuously weakening. The amount of chemical fertilizer use in the Yellow River Basin has a certain degree of spatial imbalance, with hot areas mainly concentrated in Henan and Shandong, and cold areas concentrated in Qinghai and Gansu. In the past 22 years, the number of hot areas of chemical fertilizer use in the Yellow River Basin has decreased, high-value aggregation areas have moved westward, and cold areas have increased. In the past 22 years, the use of chemical fertilizers in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin has increased by 46.52%, 38.68%, and 9.5%, respectively. The rapid growth of chemical fertilizer use in the western region has driven the center of gravity of chemical fertilizer use in the basin to move 57.40km to the northwest. In the past 22 years, the center of gravity of grain production in the Yellow River Basin has shifted 22.06km to the northwest direction, and it has tended to separate from the center of gravity of fertilizer use. [Conclusion] The action of reducing and increasing the efficiency of chemical fertilizers in the Yellow River Basin has achieved significant results, but the overall intensity of chemical fertilizer use was still exceeding the standard, and it was still necessary to reduce the use of chemical fertilizers in the future.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-12-02
  • 最后修改日期:2024-02-23
  • 录用日期:2024-02-26
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