[Objective] The land use patterns and carbon storage distribution in Handan City, Hebei Province during the recent 20 years were analyzed, and the trends in land use changes under an ecological protection policy duirng the next 10 years were determined, in order to provide evidence for both increasing urban carbon sinks and realizing sustainable urban development.[Methods] Based on the PLUS model, natural and social driving factors were selected to analyze land use change patterns in Handan City in 2030 under the scenarios of natural development and ecological protection from 2000 to 2020. Carbon storage was also evaluated by the InVEST model in Handan City from 2000 to 2030.[Results] ① The spatial distribution of land use types in Handan City showed the characteristics of "woodland in the west and cultivated land in the east". The land use transfer between cultivated land and artificial habitats accounted for 96.58% of the total land use change. ② The spatial distribution of carbon density was characterized as "high in the west and low in the east" in Handan City. Carbon storage decreased over time. Excessive encroachment of cultivated land led to a dramatic increase in carbon loss in Handan City in 2010. Excessive encroachment of cultivated land was the main cause of carbon loss in Handan City. ③ Compared with the natural development scenario, land use change under an ecological protection scenario tended to be restrained. Although the potential for ecological land improvement was average, consumption of ecological resources was avoided due to limited human activities. ④ Under both the natural development and ecological protection scenarios, carbon storage from 2020 to 2030 in Handan City was simulated to decrease by 4.23×10⁶ t and increase by 2.16×10⁴ t, respectively. The risk of carbon loss was significantly reduced across the city, and the potential of carbon sinks in different areas of the city appeared to differ significantly.[Conclusion] The encroachment of cultivated land was the main cause of carbon loss over time. Implementation of ecological protection policies significantly reduced the risk of carbon loss in each district and county, and there are obvious differences among different districts and counties. Carbon loss was more likely to occur in the east-central plain region, while the districts and counties at the eastern foot of the Taihang Mountain in the southwest had strong carbon sink potential, therefore a flexible plan should be made according to location differences.