黄河下游地区水资源生态足迹时空分析与预测
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TV213.4

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国家自然科学基金面上项目“波流动力作用下淤泥质海岸蚀退过程及力学机制”(52079056);中央级科研院所基本科研业务费专项(HKY-JBYW-2020-06);中央级科研院所基本科研业务费专项(HKY-JBYW-2020-11)。


Spatiotemporal Analysis and Prediction of Ecological Footprint of Water Resources in Lower Reaches of Yellow River Basin
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    摘要:

    [目的] 评价黄河下游水资源生态承载状态,为地区水资源管理与规划提供理论依据。[方法] 运用水资源生态足迹理论结合对数均值迪式指数分解法(logarithmic mean divisia index,LMDI)对2007—2020年黄河下游水资源生态足迹的时空分布特征及驱动机制进行核算分析,并通过灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对2021—2030年的水资源生态足迹变化趋势进行预测。[结果] 黄河下游历年水资源生态足迹远高于生态承载力,水资源生态赤字现象严重;水资源生态足迹与生态赤字年际间均呈波动降低趋势,用水效率逐渐提高,农业用水是最大的水资源生态足迹账户;黄河三角洲是黄河下游水资源生态压力最大的区域,淄博、济南、郑州和泰安4市的生态压力相对较小;经济效应对黄河下游水资源生态足迹变化起正向主导作用,技术效应起负向主导作用;预测结果表明,2021—2030年黄河下游人均水资源生态赤字由0.387 hm2/人降至0.359 hm2/人。[结论] 在生产力快速发展和用水结构优化调整等综合作用下,黄河下游地区用水效率逐渐提高,水资源生态压力有一定幅度的缓解。但由于该区域水资源生态赤字基数较大,未来水资源可持续利用形势依旧十分严峻,亟待进一步加强水资源的统筹管理,助力黄河下游地区高质量可持续发展。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The ecological carrying capacity of water resources in the lower reaches of the Yellow River basin was evaluated in order to provide a theoretical basis for regional water resource management and planning. [Methods] The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and driving mechanism of the ecological footprint of water resources in the lower reaches of the Yellow River basin from 2007 to 2020 were calculated and analyzed using the theory of ecological footprint of water resources and the logarithmic mean Divisia index method (LMDI), The grey forecasting model GM(1,1) was applied to predict the change trend of the ecological footprint of water resources from 2021 to 2030. [Results] The ecological footprint of water resources in the lower reaches of the Yellow River over the study years was much greater than the ecological carrying capacity, and the ecological deficit of water resources was serious. Both the ecological footprint of water resources and the ecological deficit showed a fluctuating and decreasing trend over years, and the efficiency of water use was gradually improving. Agricultural water consumption was the largest factor accounting for the ecological footprint of water resources. The Yellow River Delta was the area with the greatest ecological pressure on water resources in the lower reaches of the Yellow River basin. Zibo, Jinan, Zhengzhou, and Tai’an City had relatively little ecological pressure. The economic effect had a major positive role in the change of the ecological footprint of water resources in the lower reaches of the Yellow River basin, and the technical effect had a major negative role. The forecast results indicated that the ecological deficit of water resources per capita in the lower reaches of the Yellow River basin would decrease from 0.387 to 0.359 hm2/person from 2021 to 2030. [Conclusion] The water use efficiency in the lower reaches of the Yellow River basin has gradually increased over time, and the ecological pressure on water resources has been relieved to a certain extent under the comprehensive effects of rapid development of productivity and optimization and adjustment of water-using structures. However, the sustainable utilization of water resources in the future is still under very serious pressure due to the large deficit in the ecological base of water resources in this region. It is therefore urgent to further strengthen the overall management of water resources in order to help the lower reaches of the Yellow River basin achieve high-quality sustainable development.

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王广州,窦身堂,凡姚申,于守兵,戴玮琦,吴彦.黄河下游地区水资源生态足迹时空分析与预测[J].水土保持通报,2023,43(1):117-123,132

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  • 收稿日期:2022-07-01
  • 最后修改日期:2022-07-22
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-04-08
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