[Objective] The temporal and spatial differences of agricultural carbon budget and carbon compensation potential was analyzed based on the dual perspectives of carbon emission and carbon absorption in order to provide a theoretical reference for the comprehensive green transformation and coordinated development of agriculture in Hunan Province. [Methods] Exploratory spatial data analysis, absolute β convergence, parameter comparison, and GIS spatial analysis were used to empirically analyze the spatial and temporal differences of the agricultural carbon budget, spatial correlation and convergence characteristics of the carbon compensation rate, and regional differences in agricultural carbon compensation potential in Hunan Province counties. [Results] The overall agricultural carbon emissions of Hunan Province counties exhibited a structural form of ‘high value areas in the center that gradually decreased outwards’. Farmland soil was the main source of carbon emissions. The agricultural carbon emission intensity of counties exhibited a pattern of ‘high in the southwest–low in the northeast’ and significantly decreased year by year. The overall agricultural carbon sequestration in the counties exhibited a spatial pattern of ‘high in the east, central, and north regions–low in the southwest’. Agricultural carbon sequestration capacity gradually increased across the region. Rice contributed the most to agricultural carbon sequestration, and agricultural carbon absorption intensity significantly increased and its spatial pattern significantly changed. The agricultural carbon compensation rate in the counties was a net carbon source, with significant positive spatial correlation and convergence, and the spatial clustering and correlation characteristics were obvious. The potential of agricultural carbon compensation in the counties showed a significant imbalance in space, with the proportion of medium and high carbon compensation counties reaching 60.66%, indicating that the agricultural carbon compensation rates of counties in Hunan Province were low, and that there was still a large potential for increasing carbon compensation. [Conclusion] Regional cooperation should be further strengthened, and green transformation should be jointly promoted by interested parties who should give full attention to the radiation driving effect of agricultural carbon compensation rate hot spots in order to maintain the development of excellent low-carbon agriculture in regions with high agricultural carbon compensation capacity. The future focus should be on the development of green agriculture in regions with medium and high carbon compensation potential, and on narrowing the development gap of low-carbon agriculture in all Hunan Province counties.