徐州市农业碳排放时空特征与脱钩效应研究
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中国矿业大学公共管理学院

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中国矿业大学公共管理学院(应急管理学院)高水平成果培育项目“农业碳减排与生态补偿实现路径与策略”(XY202127);矿业学科群提升自主创新能力项目“采煤动态扰动生态损害评估及生物减损开采技术”(2022ZZCX02K4);中国资源型城市转型发展与乡村振兴研究中心(高端智库)(2021WHCC03)


Spatial-temporal characteristics and decoupling effect of agricultural carbon emissions in Xuzhou City
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    摘要:

    [目的]农业是影响气候变化不可忽视的碳源,农业减排固碳对“双碳”目标的如期实现和农业强国的顺利建成具有不可忽视的重要作用。[方法]采用排放系数法测算2000—2020年时空尺度下徐州市农业碳排放总量、强度和结构,而后基于Tapio脱钩模型分析其与农业经济发展间的脱钩关系。[结果]①徐州市农业碳排放总体呈“快速上升—波动上升—快速下降”3阶段变化趋势,从2000年的1.61×106 t先增后减至2020年的1.69×106 t,形象地表现为“M”形。对农业碳排放贡献率大小依次是耕地利用(46.44%)、作物种植(31.90%)和牲畜养殖(21.66%),化肥是最主要碳源;②徐州市各区(县、市)农业碳排放量差异明显,经历了由升到降的长期演化进程,空间层面上总体呈现出“中部高、周边低”的分布格局,邳州市最为突出;③徐州市农业碳排放与农业经济发展总体经历了“弱脱钩—强负脱钩—扩张负脱钩—强脱钩”的变化历程,且“十三五”以来主要表现为强脱钩。[结论]徐州市农业碳排放随着低碳减排理念的不断深入而日趋合理,农业经济发展也取得一定成效。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] Agriculture is an important source of carbon that affects climate change, and its emission reduction and carbon sequestration play an important role in achieving the "double carbon" target and building a strong agricultural country. [Methods] The total, intensity and structure of agricultural carbon emissions in Xuzhou City from 2000 to 2020 were measured using the emission coefficient method, and then the decoupling relationship between agricultural economic development was analyzed based on the Tapio decoupling model. [Results] ①The overall trend of agricultural carbon emissions in Xuzhou city is "rapid rise - fluctuating rise - rapid decline", from 1.61×106 t in 2000 to 1.69×106 t in 2020. It is in the shape of an "M". The contribution to agricultural carbon emissions is in the order of arable land use (46.44%), crop cultivation (31.90%) and livestock breeding (21.66%), with chemical fertilizers being the most important carbon source; ②Agricultural carbon emissions in Xuzhou city vary significantly among districts (counties and cities) and have undergone a long-term evolutionary process from rising to falling, with a spatial distribution pattern of "high in the middle and low in the periphery", with Pizhou city being the most prominent; ③Xuzhou''s agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic development have generally undergone a process of "weak decoupling - strong negative decoupling - expansion of negative decoupling - strong decoupling", and the main performance since the 13th Five-Year Plan is strong decoupling. [Conclusion] Xuzhou''s agricultural carbon emissions are becoming more and more reasonable as the concept of low-carbon emission reduction continues to deepen, and the agricultural economic development has also achieved certain results.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-11-05
  • 最后修改日期:2023-04-03
  • 录用日期:2023-04-04
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-11-09
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