[目的] 模拟未来短、中远期珠峰北麓朋曲流域土地利用变化，为该流域的土地利用规划提供科学参考。 [方法] 基于朋曲流域(珠峰北麓)2010-2020年的土地覆被数据，综合考虑人为和自然两大要素12项驱动因子，采用Markov-FLUS模型，对朋曲流域自由发展、耕地保护和生态保护3种未来情景下的土地覆被变化进行了模拟。 [结果] ①2020年朋曲流域土地覆被实际情况与Markov-FLUS模型模拟情况的总体精度(OA)为90%，kappa系数为0.82，精确度较高，模型可用于该区未来情景模拟； ②2010-2020年朋曲流域5种土地覆被类型发生变化，其中，林地和草地的面积变化最为明显，林地面积增加778.16 km2，草地面积减少726.89 km2； ③朋曲流域未来情景的模拟结果显示：在自由发展、耕地保护、生态保护3种不同情景下，短期内草地和其他用地类型面积变化较大，中远期除草地、其他用地类型面积变化较大以外，林地面积变化开始增大；无论是短期还是中远期来看，耕地保护情景下耕地面积均呈持续减少趋势。 [结论] 维持朋曲流域的可持续发展，必须强化落实耕地保护政策、注重耕地永续利用；生态保护情景下自然保护区内的植被类型相互转换受到限制，生物多样性得到有序协调发展。
[Objective] The land use change of the Pengqu basin of the northern footof Qomolangma in the near-and medium-term future was simulated in order to provide a scientific reference for land use planning in this area. [Methods] We used the Markov-FLUS model to simulate land cover changes based on land cover data of the Pengqu basin (at the northern foot of Mount Qomolangma) from 2010 to 2020. Three future simulation scenarios included free development, arable land conservation, and ecological protection in the Pengqu basin, and took 12 driving factors of human and natural factors into account. [Results] ① The overall accuracy between actual land cover in the Pengqu basin in 2020 and the simulated scenario from the Markov-FLUS model was 90% and the kappa coefficient was 0.82. The accuracy was considered to be high, and the model could be used to simulate future scenarios in this region; ② The five land cover types in the Pengqu basin changed from 2010 to 2020, with the most significant changes occurring in woodland and grassland areas. The woodland area increased by 778.16 km2 and the grassland area decreased by 726.89 km2; ③ The simulation results for the future scenarios of the Pengqu basin showed that under the free development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection scenarios, the largest change in land cover area in the near-term was mainly concentrated in grassland and other land types, while the largest change in land cover area in the medium-term was mainly concentrated in grassland, forest land, and other land types. Regardless of the near-term or the medium-term future time period, the cultivated land area would continue to decrease under the scenario of cultivated land protection. [Conclusion] The implementation of cultivated land protection policy can further promote the sustainable development of the Pengqu basin. In the future, attention should be given to the development and protection of cultivated land in the Pengqu basin. If ecological types are not coordinated in protected areas, ecological diversity may be damaged under ecological system transformation.