[Objective] The impact of land use change on carbon stocks under the expansion of urban construction land was explored, and the spatio-temporal evolution and future spatial distribution trend of carbon storage were revealed, in order to provide scientific basis for urban planning and the precise protection of ecologically fragile areas.[Methods] By coupling FLUS-InVEST models, this study simulated the spatial and temporal evolution of variation characteristics of land and carbon stocks in Guangzhou City from 1990 to 2018 based on the interpreted land use data and future land prediction, so as to analyze the impact of construction land expansion on carbon stocks distribution and evaluate the potential carbon stocks in the future.[Results] The land use change in Guangzhou City was characterized by the rapid expansion of construction land, mainly occupying arable land and forestland. The carbon stocks decreased by 2.47×10⁶ t from 1990 to 2018, with the largest decline from 2000 to 2005. High density carbon stocks were mainly distributed in the northern forest area, while low density carbon stocks were mainly distributed in the lower reaches of the Pearl River. The transfer of gravity center of construction land and low density carbon stocks had a high consistency. It was predicted that carbon stocks would decline by 1.20×10⁶ t between 2018 and 2034.[Conclusion] The expansion of construction land in Guangzhou City has significant impact on carbon stocks, and there is a greater risk of loss of carbon stocks in areas of the northwest and east in the future.