川西高原雪灾时空分布特征及风险评价
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国家自然科学基金项目"部分重大自然灾害的时空对称性:结构、机理与适应对策"(41171090)


Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Snow Disaster and Risk Evaluation in Western Sichuan Plateau
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    [目的] 掌握川西高原雪灾的空间格局和发展动向,为灾害相关管理部门提供决策依据。[方法] 以川西高原16个气象站点1961-2012年的逐日气温与降水量资料为基础,采用线性回归、反距离加权空间插值、自然灾害风险指数法,对川西高原雪灾的时空特征和雪灾风险进行研究。[结果] (1) 近52 a来川西高原地区各站点累计大雪、暴雪雪灾频次均呈增加趋势,增加倾向率分别为0.93和0.51次/10 a。(2) 川西高原地区雪灾具有显著的空间差异性。雪灾天气总体呈北方多而南方少的态势。(3) 雪灾发生的高风险区主要集中在石渠、色达、甘孜、红原、若尔盖、康定等地,松潘、理塘为中等风险区,德格、小金、马尔康、新龙、道孚、巴塘、稻城和九龙等地雪灾风险最低。[结论] 川西高原地区雪灾频次和程度均呈加重趋势,应采取有效措施加强对雪灾的防治和管理。

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    [objective] To master the spatial pattern and trends of snow disaster in Western Sichuan Plateau so as to provide desision basis for management department of disaster.[Methods] By using methods of linear regression, inverse distance weighted spatial interpolation, natural disaster risk index method, the spatial-temporal characteristics and risk of snow disaster were analyzed based on daily temperature and rainfall data of 16 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2012 in Western Sichuan Plateau.[Results] (1) The days of heavy snow and blizzard increased over the last 52 years in Western Sichuan Plateau, the change rates were 0.93 d/10 a and 0.51 d/10 a respectively. (2) The snow disaster had a distinct spatial difference in Western Sichuan Plateau, the days of snow disaster were more in north of Western Sichuan Plateau, and less in south of Western Sichuan Plateau. (3) Shiqu, Seda, Ganzi, Hongyuan, Ruoergai, and Kangding had the highest risk of snow disaster, Songpan and Litang were moderate-risk areas, Dege, XiaoJin, Ma'erkan, Xinlong, Daofu, Batang, Daocheng and Jiulong were low-risk areas.[Conclusion] The frequency and extent of snow disaster were increasing in Western Sichuan Plateau, it should take more effective measures to strengthen the prevention and management of snow disaster.

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杜华明,延军平,杨蓉,杨登兴.川西高原雪灾时空分布特征及风险评价[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(3):261-266

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2014-03-03
  • 最后修改日期:2014-04-28
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-04-05
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