近51 a长江中下游与黄河中下游地区夏季降水变化对比
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国家社会科学基金重点项目"历史时期汉江上游极端性气候水文事件及其社会影响研究"(11AZS009);国家自然科学基金面上项目"黄河晋陕峡谷全新世古洪水事件及其与季风气候变化关系研究"(41471071,41271108,41371029);教育部博士点基金优先发展领域项目(20110202130002);中央高校基本科研业务费创新团队项目(GK201301003)


Comparison of Summer Precipitation Change in Mid-lower Reaches of Yangtze River and Yellow River During 1960-2010
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    摘要:

    [目的] 对比分析长江中下游和黄河中下游地区夏季降水变化特征。[方法] 利用长江中下游48个站点和黄河中下游地区的45个站点1960-2010年51 a的夏季逐月降水资料,采用M-K检验和小波分析等方法,对其降水的年代际变化、降水序列变化的周期和突变点进行了对比分析,并对降水格局变化的原因进行了分析。[结果] 1960-2010年,长江中下游地区的夏季降水呈增加趋势,黄河中下游地区呈减少趋势,整体上表现为南涝北旱;从年代际角度来看,20世纪60年代和70年代,长江中下游地区为少雨期,黄河中下游地区为多雨期;80年代,长江中下游地区降水量较70年代增多,而黄河中下游地区降水量减少;90年代,长江中下游地区的降水明显增加,而黄河中下游地区的降水持续减少;21世纪,长江中下游地区降水有所减少,而黄河中下游地区降水略有增加。小波分析结果表明,两个地区降水变化主周期都约为10~12 a,但正负相位时段相反。两个地区的夏季降水格局的变化反映了东亚夏季风的强弱变化,东亚夏季风的强弱变化是造成这种降水格局的主要原因。[结论] 在未来的10~12 a内,东亚夏季风可能有增强趋势,需要注意未来中国夏季降水可能出现的南旱北涝变化格局。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] To investigate the change characteristics of summer precipitation in mid-lower reaches of Yangtze River and Yellow River.[Methods] Based on the summer monthly precipitation data from 1960 to 2010 of 48 stations in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and 45 stations in the mid-lower reaches of the Yellow River, the decadal change, the periodic oscillation of precipitation variation and the points of abrupt change, and the reasons of the change were comparatively analyzed by Mann-Kendall test and the Morlet wavelet method.[Results] The summer precipitation showed an increase trend in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and a decrease trend in the mid-lower reaches of the Yellow River during 1960-2010. On the whole, the summer precipitation showed the pattern of southern flood and northern drought. From the decadal perspective, it was drought period in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and flood period in the mid-lower reaches of the Yellow River during 1960s and 1970s. Summer precipitation in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River in 1980s was more than that in 1970s, while precipitation in the mid-lower reaches of the Yellow River was less than that in 1970s. Summer precipitation was obviously in positive departure in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and it was negative departure in the mid-lower reaches of the Yellow River in 1990s. Summer precipitation was in negative departure in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and it was slightly positive departure in the mid-lower reaches of the Yellow River in 2000s. Based on the Morlet wavelet method, it was showed that the main cycle of precipitation was about 10 to 12 years in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and in the mid-lower reaches of the Yellow River, but the time of the phase cycle was opposite. The change of summer precipitation pattern in both regions showed the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon. The strength of the East Asian summer monsoon was mainly contributed to this precipitation pattern.[Conclusion] The East Asian summer monsoon would be stronger and it should to pay attention to the summer precipitation pattern of southern drought and northern flood in the next 10~12 years.

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殷方圆,殷淑燕.近51 a长江中下游与黄河中下游地区夏季降水变化对比[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(1):317-322

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  • 收稿日期:2014-02-09
  • 最后修改日期:2014-03-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-04-05
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