西北地区气候变化与风速响应特征
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国家自然科学基金项目"部分重大自然灾害的时空对称性:结构、机理与适应对策"(41171090)


Climate Change and Response Characteristics to Wind Speed in Northwestern China
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    摘要:

    依据西北地区105个气象站点近51 a逐年气温、降水及风速资料,利用趋势线法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法及ArcGIS空间差值法分析了该地气候变化特征及其对风速的影响。结果表明:(1) 近51 a来,西北地区增温趋势明显,气温经历了相对低温期-大幅上升期-上升趋势减缓期的转变;增温趋势空间差异明显。(2) 该区降水呈下降趋势,呈现出由显著变化-趋于稳定-波动加快的转变;降水变化东西差异明显。(3) 综合气温和降水来看,西北地区东部呈暖干化趋势,西、中部地区呈相对暖湿趋势。(4) 近51 a平均风速整体以每10 a降低0.11 m/s的速率变化,1974年之前呈增强趋势,之后减弱趋势明显,1993-2011年趋于稳定;风速变化空间上呈现出东南部、西部与中部的差异。(5) 气温和风速呈极显著负相关关系。

    Abstract:

    Based on the meteorological data of the 105 stations in Northwestern China from 1961 to 2011, the climate change and corresponding response characteristics of wind speed were analyzed by using the methods of linear regression, the Mann-Kendall mutation test. The results showed that the temperature has been rising obviously in Northwestern China in the 51 years and the temperature variation exhibited three periods: the decline period, rising period, and slow rise period; Moreover, the spatial differences of the warming trends were significant. The precipitation showed a decrease trend which experienced remarkable change, stable, and accelerated fluctuations. Meanwhile, the change of the precipitation had an obvious difference between east area and west area. On the whole, the east of the Northwestern China showed a warming and drying trend, the west and the central region presented a trend of relatively warming and wetting. The average wind speed declined at 0.11 m/s per 10 a which increased until 1974, then decreased significantly, and became stable from 1993 to 2011. In addition, the wind speed exhibited spatial differences among the southeastern, western and central of Northwestern China. Furthermore, there was a significant negative correlation between temperature and wind speed.

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丁彩霞,延军平,李敏敏.西北地区气候变化与风速响应特征[J].水土保持通报,2014,(4):134-137

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  • 收稿日期:2013-08-29
  • 最后修改日期:2013-09-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-04-05
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