猫跳河流域气象水文因素的变化趋势分析
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环保部公益性行业科研专项“水利工程生态效应与生态调度准则研究”(200909057)


Trend Detection of Hydrometeorological Variables in Maotiaohe Basin
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    摘要:

    以我国第一条全流域梯级水电开发的河流猫跳河为对象,系统分析了猫跳河流域主要气象水文变量的基本情势,分析了各因素的变化趋势。利用紧邻猫跳河流域的贵阳、安顺和黔西地区的3个气象站近60a的逐日气象观测数据,采用线性回归和Mann-Kendall法检测其变化趋势,利用FAO56方法计算了流域参考作物的蒸散发状况。结果表明:(1)流域多年平均降水量在1 000~1 300mm之间,没有显著的变化趋势;(2)在过去60a,流域平均气温累计上升约0.4~1.0℃,呈现一定程度的暖化趋势;(3)流域的平均年日照时数在1 200~1 300h之间,且呈现明显的下降趋势,大致以8~10h/a的速率递减;(4)流域日参考作物蒸发在2.5~2.7mm/d之间。多年平均参考作物蒸发在900~1 000mm之间。年参考作物蒸发下降趋势显著,与日照时数的减小相一致。猫跳河流域总体上呈现一定程度的暖化现象,但气候变化对水资源的影响程度有限。

    Abstract:

    The Maotiaohe River is the first river in China which has been completely developed for hydropower in a cascade manner.In this study,we systematically analyzed the regimes of hydrometeorological variables and detected their possible trends.Meteorological and hydrological observations on a daily basis were obtained at three weather stations in the vicinity of the Maotiaohe Basin for the period of the 1950-2010.Linear regression and the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend detection technique were applied.In addition,daily reference crop evapotranspiration was calculated based on the FAO56 equation.The results showed that the mean annual precipitation ranged 1 000-1 300 mm/a in the watershed,while no statistically significant temporal trend was detected.The temperature of the watershed increased about 0.4-1.0 ℃ over the past 60 years,exhibiting a warming trend.The mean annul sunshine hour ranged 1 200-1 300 h/a,showing a decreasing trend at a rate of 8-10 h/a.Daily crop evapotranspiration was found to be 2.5-2.7 mm/d and mean annual reference crop evapotranspiration ranged 900-1 000 mm/a over the study period,displaying a decreasing trend over time.The decrease of evaportranspiration was closely correlated with the trend in sunshine hour.Overall,the Maotiaohe River watershed showed a slightly warming trend,which did however have not resulted in a significant impact yet on water resources of this watershed.

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鲁春霞,马聪,李亦秋,程晓凌.猫跳河流域气象水文因素的变化趋势分析[J].水土保持通报,2012,(6):262-267

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  • 收稿日期:2012-03-16
  • 最后修改日期:2012-05-07
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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-11-25
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