张掖地区植被覆盖变化及其预测研究
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甘肃省教育厅项目“张掖荒漠化防治研究”(省教技[200831号])


Dynamic Analysis of Vegetation Cover and Prediction in Zhangye Region
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    摘要:

    基于MODIS—NDVI数据,运用植被重心法、一元线性回归及R/S分析法对张掖地区2000—2008年204幅遥感图像进行了分析。结果表明:(1)2000—2003年植被重心向东移动,说明东部植被增加或西部植被减少;2006—2008年向北移动,说明北部植被增加或南部植被减少。植被重心年内变化表现为以5月和11月为界的不稳定—稳定—不稳定变化趋势。(2)近10a来植被覆盖呈增加趋势,植被改善区域占整个研究区面积的75.98%,分布于山丹、民乐和张掖盆地,主要土地类型为旱地和人工草地;人工植被增加速度高于天然植被;退化地区零星分布于人类活动强的张掖盆地和祁连山地北部。(3)生长季平均NDVI值的Hurst指数集中分布在0.4~0.6之间,以弱持续性和反持续性为主,但生长季各月则有一定的差异性,从5,6月份以持续性趋势为主到7月份的持续性减弱,反持续性增强,再到8,9月份的反持续性趋势减弱,持续性增强;不同土地利用类型的Hurst值排序为:其它未利用土地<建设用地<草地<耕地<未利用土地<林地<水体。

    Abstract:

    The temporal and spatial variations of normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)in Zhangye region during 2000—2008were analyzed using the gravity center of vegetation,linear regression and R/S analysis based on the MODIS—NDVI data.The results show that the gravity center of vegetation moved eastward during 2000—2003,indicating increases of vegetation cover in the east and decreases in the west. The gravity centre of vegetation moved northward during 2006—2008,which revealed the vegetation increases in the north and decreases in the south during this period.Annual variations of the vegetation gravity centre were unstable from January to May and from November to January,but stable from May to November. Vegetation cover increased in basins of Shandan,Minle and Zhangye during recent ten years,which accounts for 75.98%of the whole study area.The main land use types of the study area were dry land and artificial grassland.The artificial vegetation increased faster than natural vegetation.Degraded regions distributed sporadically over Zhangye Basin and Qilian Mountain due to intensified human activities.The Hurst index of the growing season NDVI focused on 0.4~0.6,indicating weak sustainability and/or non-sustainability. However,the indices of each month in the growing seasons differed substantially.The Hurst index showed a transition of vegetation cover from sustainable in May to unsustainable in July,while the sustainability of the vegetation cover increased in August and September.The results also show different land use types in the order of increasing Hurst value as:unused landⅡ

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李芳,蒋志荣.张掖地区植被覆盖变化及其预测研究[J].水土保持通报,2011,(5):220-224

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  • 收稿日期:2010-11-02
  • 最后修改日期:2011-02-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-11-26
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