长沙市耕地时空动态变化及驱动力研究
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“十一五”国家科技支撑重点项目资助(2007BAC16B08)


Characteristics and Driving Forces of Cultivated Land Dynamic Change in Changsha City
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    摘要:

    基于1990—2006年期间耕地和社会经济发展历史数据,分析长沙市耕地资源的发展现状和时空变化特点,并运用主成分分析法和多元回归分析法对长沙市耕地非农化的驱动力进行研究。结果表明,(1)长沙市耕地面积在1990—2003年呈逐步下降趋势,年均耕地递减率约为0.26%;2003—2006年耕地呈小幅度增长趋势。(2)区域差异度计算结果表明,长沙市不同的区县耕地变化速度和区域差异明显,耕地变化较为剧烈的地区为社会经济发展较为快速的区县。(3)主成分分析表明,长沙市耕地变化的驱动因子主要可以总结为经济发展水平因子和农业科技水平因子,其中经济发展水平因子是最为关键因素。(4)多元回归分析也表明,经济因素是长沙市耕地变化最为重要影响因素。

    Abstract:

    Based on the historical data of cultivated land and economic development in 1990 - 2006, the paper analyzed the spatiotemporal change characteristics of cultivated land in Changsha City. The main factors to driving forces in cultivated land change were then analyzed by the principal component analysis and multiple regression analysis. Results showed that (1) the cultivated land in Changsha City presented a downward trend in 1990 —2003 and a slight rising trend in 2003 - 2006. The annual decline percentage between 1990 and 2006 was about0. 26 %. (2) Regional difference between regions was obvious. (3) The principal component analysis indicated that economic factor and agricultural factor could be summed up as the two main factors to reducing cultivated land in Changsha City and the economic factor was the key one. (4) Multiple regression analysis also indicated that the economic factor was the most important influence factor to the change of cultivated land in Changsha City.

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洪鸿加,彭晓春,陈志良,张杏杏,刘强,曾东.长沙市耕地时空动态变化及驱动力研究[J].水土保持通报,2010,(3):224-229

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2009-05-16
  • 最后修改日期:2009-06-03
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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-11-26
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