Abstract: [Objective] To detect the distribution of landscape ecological risks in the Dabang River Basin, conduct an in-depth analysis the driving factors of landscape ecological risk in typical karst river basins and conduct multi-scenario predictions, so as to contribute to enhancing the stability of the local ecosystem and protecting the karst ecological environment. [Method] An ecological risk assessment model was constructed using the landscape index method. By integrating means such as spatial autocorrelation analysis, optimal Parameter Geodetector, and multi-scenario simulation, an in-depth study on the ecological risk in the Dabang River Basin from 2013 to 2023 was conducted. [Result]1) The largest land use area transfer within the basin was between cultivated land and forest land, and the most intense period of transfer was from 2018 to 2023. 2) The ecological risk in the basin has gradually improved. The medium-high risk and high-risk areas are mainly located in the western part of Xixiu District, Liuzhi Special District, the southwestern part of Guanling County, and the central part of Zhenning County, where grassland, water areas and construction land are distributed. The spatial agglomeration of the basin's ecological risk first increased and then decreased. 3) The single-factor detection of the landscape ecological risk in the basin indicates that NDVI (0.37), night light (0.16), and vegetation coverage (0.11) are the three factors with the strongest explanatory power. The double-factor detection is affected by the interaction of NDVI∩soil type, distance to railway∩NDVI, and population distribution∩NDVI, suggesting that the combined effect of natural and social factors is the key to the changes in the landscape ecological risk of the basin. 4) In multi- scenario predictions, the landscape ecological risk is relatively high under the ED scenario, while the overall landscape ecological risk is relatively low under the EP scenario. Considering both the sustainable development of the river basin and ecological protection, EP scenario is a favorable path for the future development of the river basin. [Conclusion] The landscape ecological risk in the Dabang River Basin is mainly the result of the interaction of natural and social factors. The ecological protection scenario (EP) results in a relatively lower landscape ecological risk, which is the inevitable path for achieving sustainable development and building a beautiful China.