干旱区农业生态效率与经济韧性协同权衡识别及驱动因素
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新疆农业大学经济管理学院

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新疆自治区人才发展基金‘天池英才’ 引进计划(创新领军人才)”项目


Identification and driving factors of synergistic trade-offs between agroecological efficiency and economic resilience in arid regions
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新疆农业大学

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    摘要:

    [目的]实现农业生态效率与经济韧性协同发展是新疆迈向可持续发展的重要路径。[方法]研究测度新疆14个地州2010—2022年农业生态效率水平和农业经济韧性,运用Spearman秩相关分析、生产可能性边界(PPF)和权衡强度指数定量化分析效率与韧性的权衡-协同关系,采用GWR分析不同地区效率-韧性协同权衡关系的影响因素。[结果]①新疆农业经济韧性时间上呈现迅猛式增长态势,空间上呈现“南部>北部”的分布格局。农业生态效率呈现增长态势,空间上为“南部>北部”的格局。②产出与抵抗力显著协同,产出与恢复力显著权衡,投入-抵抗力与产出-恢复力的PPF曲线形状为“下凹-上凸”,且对应组合多数处于最优配置。③各影响因素加强效率与韧性的权衡关系,整体大小表现为:农林水财政支出>财政科技支出>农林牧渔业总产值>环境污染治理投资总额;各影响因素加强效率与韧性的协同关系,从大到小排序为:环境污染治理投资总额>财政科技支出>农林牧渔业总产值>农林水财政支出。[结论]农业生态效率与农业经济韧性存在权衡和协同两种关系,因此需要因地制宜制定效率与韧性协同发展政策,实现新疆可持续发展。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] Achieving the coordinated development of agricultural ecological efficiency and economic resilience is an important pathway for Xinjiang to progress towards sustainable development. [Method] This study measures the levels of agricultural ecological efficiency and economic resilience in 14 prefectures of Xinjiang from 2010 to 2022, utilizing Spearman's rank correlation analysis, production possibility frontier (PPF), and trade-off intensity index to quantitatively analyze the trade-off and coordination relationship between efficiency and resilience, and employing geographically weighted regression (GWR) to examine the influencing factors of the efficiency-resilience coordination trade-off in different regions. [Result] (1) The resilience of Xinjiang's agricultural economy has demonstrated a rapid growth trend over time, with a spatial distribution pattern of "southern > northern." Agricultural ecological efficiency is also showing an increasing trend, with the spatial pattern being "southern > northern." (2) There are significant synergies between output and resistance, significant trade-offs between output and resilience, and the PPF curves for input-resistance and output-resilience are “concave-convex” in shape, with most of the corresponding portfolios in their optimal configurations. (3) The trade-off relationship between efficiency and resilience was strengthened by the influencing factors, and the overall size was as follows: fiscal expenditure on agriculture > forestry and water resources > total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery > total investment in environmental pollution control; The coordinated relationship between efficiency and resilience was strengthened by the influencing factors, in descending order: total investment in environmental pollution control > fiscal expenditure on science and technology > gross output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery > fiscal expenditure on agriculture, forestry, and water. [Conclusion] There are trade-offs and coordination between agricultural ecological efficiency and agricultural economic resilience, so it is necessary to formulate coordinated development policies for efficiency and resilience according to local conditions to achieve sustainable development in Xinjiang.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-21
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-03
  • 录用日期:2025-07-04
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