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基于多源国土空间数据的资源环境综合承载力及人口承载力评价——以江苏省常州市为例
潘昱奇1,2, 李满春1,2, 姜朋辉1,2, 陈登帅1,2
1.南京大学 地理与海洋科学学院, 江苏 南京 210023;2.江苏省地理信息技术重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210023
摘要:
[目的] 研究江苏省常州市资源环境综合承载力情况,明确国土空间开发与利用方向,为该区土地与人口的空间布局优化提供决策依据。[方法] 基于2010—2019年多源国土空间数据,构建多因素多因子综合判别模型。[结果] 常州市资源环境综合承载力呈现出显著的东高西低,平原高山地丘陵区低等空间分异特征。此外,基于未来土地资源的粮食安全保障水平预测2030年常州市人口承载指数高达1.27,显著高于国际警戒水平。[结论] 常州市空间开发程度、自然本底和基础设施条件对区域资源环境综合承载力水平具有显著的约束,且人口处于超载状态。
关键词:  资源环境综合承载力  土地资源  粮食安全  人口承载力  多因素多因子综合判别模型
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2021.04.045
分类号:X24;F127
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“市域尺度耕地景观格局演变时空过程模型研究”(41801298);江苏省自然科学基金“耕地景观格局演变过程模型构建与应用研究”(BK20180348);国家重点研发计划项目“国土资源与生态环境安全监测系统集成技术及应急响应示范”(2017YFB0504200)
Evaluation on Comprehensive Carrying Capacity of Resources and Environment, and Population Carrying Capacity Based on Multi-source Land Spatial Data—Taking Changzhou City of Jiangsu Province as an Example
Pan Yuqi1,2, Li Manchun1,2, Jiang Penghui1,2, Chen Dengshuai1,2
1.School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China;2.Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
Abstract:
[Objective] The comprehensive carrying capacity of resource and environment in Changzhou City of Jiangsu Province was studied, in order to clarify the direction of land space development and utilization, and to provide decision-making references for the spatial allocation optimization of land and population.[Methods] Based on multi-source land and space data from 2010 to 2019, a multi-index and multi-factor synthetic discriminant model was constructed. [Results] The comprehensive carrying capacity of resources and environment in Changzhou City presented significant spatial differences, such as high in the east and low in the west, high in the plain and low in the mountainous and hilly areas. Moreover, based on the food security guarantee level calculated with future land resources, the population carrying index of Changzhou City in 2030 would be as high as 1.27, which was significantly higher than the international alert level. [Conclusion] The spatial development degree, natural background and infrastructure conditions have significant constraints on the comprehensive carrying capacity of resources and environment in Changzhou City, and the population is in a state of overloading.
Key words:  comprehensive carrying capacity of resources and environment  land resources  food security  population carrying capacity  multi-index and multi-factor synthetic discriminant model