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西北干旱区绿洲县域3类空间冲突分析与模拟
张云霞1,2, 高敏华1,2, 孜比布拉·司马义1,3
1.新疆大学 资源与环境科学学院, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046;2.新疆大学 绿洲生态教育部重点实验室, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046;3.智慧城市与环境建模普通高校重点实验室, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046
摘要:
[目的] 对西北干旱区绿洲县域3类空间冲突进行分析与模拟,为该区国土空间合理布局、区域可持续发展提供科学参考。[方法] 以西北干旱区绿洲县域——新疆麦盖提县为研究区,基于土地利用主导功能构建空间分类体系,将国土空间划分为城镇、农业与生态空间;根据景观格局指数构建空间冲突测度模型探讨2009—2019年空间冲突水平演变特征;通过CA-Markov模型预测2024年空间布局并分析冲突强度变化特征。[结果] ①3类空间呈现“两增一减”的变化动态,城镇空间面积呈逐年递增趋势,由1 537.74 hm2增加至4 582.24 hm2;农业空间由84 670.06 hm2增加至107 447.66 hm2;生态空间面积减少25 822.69 hm2。②2009—2019年空间冲突强度显著增强,中等空间冲突、较高空间冲突与高空间冲突评价单元所占比例分别增加了50.41%,13.45%,0.53%。③2024年城镇空间、农业空间将分别增加2 981.19和4 285.96 hm2,生态空间将减少7 267.16 hm2;冲突水平以所占比例为60.24%的中等空间冲突为主。[结论] 2009—2019年城镇空间、农业空间逐年增加、生态空间逐年递减,各类空间的无序变化导致空间冲突强度整体增强,通过预测2024年3类空间变化趋势与2009—2019年保持一致,并以中等空间冲突为主。
关键词:  3类空间  景观生态指数  空间冲突  CA-Makov模型  西北干旱区绿洲
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2021.04.029
分类号:F301.23
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41661036)
Analysis and Simulation of Conflicts of Three Space Types in Oasis Counties of Northwest Arid Zone
Zhang Yunxia1,2, Gao Minhua1,2, Cuminbibra Ismayil1,3
1.Institute of Resource and Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830046, China;2.Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830046, China;3.Key Laboratory of Intelligent City and Environment Modeling, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830046, China
Abstract:
[Objective] The conflicts of three space types in oasis counties in the northwest arid zone were analyzed and simulated, in order to provide scientific reference for the rational layout of land space and sustainable development of the region. [Methods] Taking the oasis county of northwest arid zone—Mageti County, Xinjiang Wei Autonomous Region as the study area, a spatial classification system was constructed based on the dominant land use function to divide the national land space into urban, agricultural and ecological space. A spatial conflict measurement model was constructed based on the landscape pattern index to explore the evolution characteristics of spatial conflict levels from 2009 to 2019. The CA-Markov model was used to predict the spatial layout in 2024 and analyze the characteristics of conflict intensity changes. [Results] The area of urban space increased from 1 537.74 hm2 to 4 582.24 hm2, and the area of agricultural space increased from 84 670.06 hm2 to 107 447.66 hm2, while the area of ecological space decreased by 25 822.69 hm2. ② The intensity of spatial conflict increased significantly from 2009 to 2019, and the proportion of medium spatial conflict, relative high spatial conflict and high spatial conflict evaluation units increased by 50.41%, 13.45% and 0.53%, respectively. ③ In 2024, urban space and agricultural space would increase 2 981.19 and 4 285.96 hm2, respectively, and ecological space decrease 7 267.16 hm2. The conflict level would be dominated by medium spatial conflict, which account for 60.24%. [Conclusion] From 2009—2019, urban space and agricultural space increased year by year, while ecological space decreased, and the disordered change of all kinds of space led to the overall increase of spatial conflict intensity. Through the prediction, the change trend of the 3 types of space in 2024 would consistent with that in 2009—2019, and the medium spatial conflict was the main one.
Key words:  three types of space  landscape ecological index  space conflict  CA-Markov model  northwest arid zone oasis