引用本文:
【打印本页】   【HTML】   【下载PDF全文】   查看/发表评论  【EndNote】   【RefMan】   【BibTex】
←前一篇|后一篇→ 过刊浏览    高级检索
本文已被:浏览 45次   下载 41 本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
分享到: 微信 更多
基于生态足迹的广西壮族自治区水资源生态特征时空变化规律及其驱动因素分析
莫崇勋1,2,3, 赵梳坍1,2,3, 阮俞理1,2,3, 莫细喜1,2,3, 孙桂凯1,2,3, 黄亚1,4
1.广西大学 土木建筑工程学院, 广西 南宁 530004;2.广西大学 工程防灾与结构安全教育部重点实验室, 广西 南宁 530004;3.广西大学 广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室, 广西 南宁 530004;4.中国水利水电科学研究院 流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室, 北京 100038
摘要:
[目的] 分析近10 a来广西壮族自治区水资源生态特征的时空变化规律,探讨水资源生态足迹变化的驱动因素,为该区或同类区域的水资源合理开发与利用管理提供参考依据。[方法] 基于生态足迹模型中的水资源生态足迹、水资源生态承载力及水资源生态容量指标分析2008-2017年广西壮族自治区水资源生态特征的时空变化规律,并采用LMDI模型分析生态足迹变化的驱动因素及各地级市在关键驱动因素上的贡献比例。[结果] ①广西壮族自治区人均水资源生态足迹整体呈下降趋势,平均下降速率为-0.017 4 hm2/(人·a),人均水资源生态承载力和生态容量整体呈波动上升趋势,平均上升速率分别为0.324 6 hm2/(人·a),0.342 1 hm2/(人·a),三者在空间上均呈一定的差异性和不均衡性;②经济效应、人口效应是拉动该区水资源生态足迹增长的第一、第二因素,贡献效率分别为191.8%,25.38%,技术效应、结构效应是抑制水资源生态足迹增长的第一、第二因素,贡献效率分别为-238.0%,-79.18%;③南宁市、桂林市在结构效应和技术效应上对减少水资源生态足迹的空间贡献比例最大。[结论] 广西壮族自治区水资源生态容量处于生态盈余状态,该区的水资源利用效率逐渐提高,水资源开发局势整体向好。但城市发展与规划存在较大差异,需因地制宜地采取对策。
关键词:  生态足迹  LMDI模型  水资源  时空变化  驱动因素  广西壮族自治区
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2020.06.042
分类号:TV213.4;X826
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“土石坝水库汛期分期调度与防洪安全风险评估研究”(51569003),“基于长短期优化调度嵌套的西南岩溶区流域水库智能调度决策研究”(51969004);广西自然科学基金资助项目(2017GXNSFAA198361);广西研究生教育创新计划项目(YCBZ2019022;YCBZ2018023)
Spatial-temporal Variation of Water Ecological Characteristics of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Its Driving Factors Based on Ecological Footprint Model
Mo Chongxun1,2,3, Zhao Shutan1,2,3, Ruan Yuli1,2,3, Mo Xixi1,2,3, Sun Guikai1,2,3, Huang Ya1,4
1.College of Civil and Architectural Engineering, Guangxi University, Nanning, Guangxi 530004, China;2.Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety of Ministry of Education, Nanning, Guangxi 530004, China;3.Guangxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Engineering Safety, Nanning, Guangxi 530004, China;4.China State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Catchment, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Abstract:
[Objective] The temporal and spatial variations of the water ecological characteristics of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in recent 10 years, and the driving factors of the water ecological footprint changes were studied in order to provide reference for the rational development, utilization and management of water resources of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region or similar regions.[Methods] Based on the water resources consumption ecological footprint, water resources ecological carrying capacity and water ecological capacity indexes in the ecological footprint model, the temporal and spatial variations of the water ecological characteristics in the study area from 2008 to 2017 were analyzed. LMDI model was used to analyze the driving factors of the ecological footprint changes and the contribution rate of each prefecture-level city in the key driving factor.[Results] ① The ecological footprint of water resources per capita presented an overall downward trend, with an average decline rate of -0.017 4 hm2/(person·year). The water resources ecological carrying capacity and water resources ecological capacity showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the average rising rate of 0.324 6 hm2/(person·year) and 0.342 1 hm2/(person·year) respectively. All of them showed a certain differences and imbalances in space. ② Economic effect and population effect were the first and second factors to promote the growth of the water ecological footprint in the study area, contributing efficiency of 191.8% and 25.38% respectively. Technical effect and structural effect were the first and second factors restraining the water ecological footprint growth, with contributing efficiency of -238.0% and -79.18% respectively. ③ Nanning City and Guilin City contributed the most to reduce the water resources consumption ecological footprint in terms of structural effect and technical effect.[Conclusion] The ecological capacity of water resources in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region was in an ecological surplus state. However, great differences existed among different cities in urban development and planning, so countermeasures should be taken according to local conditions.
Key words:  ecological footprint  LMDI model  water resources  temporal and spatial variation  driving factors  Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region