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基于集合经验模态分解的河南省夏玉米产量波动对大气环流的响应
田宏伟1,2, 闵俊杰3, 黄进1,4, 张方敏1,4
1.中国气象局/河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室, 河南 郑州 450003;2.河南省气象科学研究所, 河南 郑州 450003;3.国电环境保护研究院有限公司, 江苏 南京 210031;4.南京信息工程大学 应用气象学院, 江苏 南京 210044
摘要:
[目的] 探究河南省夏玉米产量波动对大气环流的响应,为区域粮食安全保障提供理论支撑。[方法] 依托河南省17个市1988—2017年夏玉米产量数据及15种大尺度大气环流指数资料,评估研究区夏玉米产量的时空演变格局。[结果] ①基于主成分分析结果,河南省可以划分为4个呈现不同产量演变特征的子区域,分别为北部、东南部、西部、中部;②基于集合经验模态分解,研究区产量序列存在着准2.5~3.3,5~6,7.5~10 a的周期性振荡,且各分区2004年后产量的短期波动趋于缓和;③各分区产量的周期性振荡均与环流指数存在着显著的相关性;④基于前期环流指数与年份的线性模型对产量预报的平均相对误差为4.6%~9.3%;⑤河南省东南部和中部的产量波动对环流指数更为敏感,其中10,11月份较高的太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)是来年产量减少的关键前兆性信号。[结论] 前期环流异常对研究区夏玉米产量波动有着重要的指示作用,它可以有效用于产量预报。
关键词:  产量波动  集合经验模态分解  大气环流
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2020.04.024
分类号:S162.5;P426
基金项目:科技部重大研发计划项目“多源气象资料融合技术研究与产品研制”(2018YFC1506606);中国气象局/河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室开放资助项目(AFM202006)
Responses of Summer Maize Yield to Atmospheric Circulation in He'nan Province Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition
Tian Hongwei1,2, Min Junjie3, Huang Jin1,4, Zhang Fangmin1,4
1.China Meteorological Administrator/He'nan Provincial Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Safeguard and Applied Technique, Zhengzhou, He'nan 450003, China;2.Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou, He'nan 450003, China;3.Limited Company of State Power Environmental Protection Research Institute, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210031;4.School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210044, China
Abstract:
[Objective] The responses of summer maize yield to atmospheric circulation in He'nan Province was studied in order to provide the theoretical support for regional food security. [Methods] Based on the summer maize yield data in 17 cites of He'nan Province during 1988—2017 and 15 kinds of large-scale atmospheric circulation indices (LACI) data, the spatio-temporal variability of summer maize yield were evaluated. [Results] ① By using principal component analysis, He'nan Province could be divided into four sub-regions with different evolution characteristics of unit yield, such as north, southeast, west, and central regions. ② Based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), there were periodic oscillations of 2.5—3.3, 5—6, 7.5—10 years for yield series in the study area, and the short-term fluctuation in each sub-regions tended to moderate after 2004. ③ There were significant correlations between the periodic oscillation of yield and LACI in each sub-region. ④ The average relative error of the linear model based on previous LACI and year was ranged from 4.6%~9.3%. ⑤ The yield fluctuations in southeast and central areas were more sensitive to LACI, and the higher Pacific interdecadal oscillation (PDO) in October and November was the key precursor signal for yield reduction in the coming years. [Conclusion] The early atmospheric circulation anomalies has an important indicative effect on the fluctuation of summer maize yield in the study area, which can be effectively used for yield forecasting.
Key words:  yield fluctuations  ensemble empirical mode decomposition  atmospheric circulation