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渭河流域百年尺度水旱特征及其影响因素
胡浩楠1, 刘引鸽1,2, 马凯1
1.宝鸡文理学院 地理与环境学院, 陕西 宝鸡 721013;2.陕西省灾害监测与机理模拟重点实验室, 陕西 宝鸡 721013
摘要:
[目的] 分析渭河流域在气候变化下百年尺度的旱涝特征及其影响因素,为区域水资源规划管理、生态环境建设与保持、气候预估及防灾减灾工作提供科学支持。[方法] 通过收集1800-2017年历史资料重建旱涝序列,采用小波变换、滑动t检验、滑动相关等方法探究渭河近200 a来的旱涝规律,并探讨引起旱涝的可能原因。[结果] 渭河流域近200 a来轻旱出现频率最高,大涝出现频率最低,前100 a上游以旱为主,下游以涝为主,后100 a则相反,中游旱涝变化波动较小。旱涝变化第一主周期上游为18 a,中游62 a,下游10 a,以中小周期为主。ENSO指数与渭河旱涝序列的滑动相关系数与ENSO方差下降的一致性,表明渭河旱涝与ENSO之间的遥相关机制。对比发现太阳黑子与旱涝存在显著相关关系,旱涝周期与降水分析表明两者在短周期下变化较为趋同。[结论] 渭河旱涝前后突变有很高的继承性,与气候环境变化密切相关;旱涝空间差异明显,且太阳黑子谷值时更应注意防灾减灾。
关键词:  气候变化  旱涝灾害  渭河流域  ENSO  滚动相关
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2020.02.037
分类号:P467
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目"近200年来渭河流域气候变化水文效应及机制研究"(41771048);国家社会科学基金项目(15XZZ012);宝鸡文理学院重点项目(ZK16061);宝鸡文理学院自然地理学陕西省重点学科项目
Characteristics and Its Influencing Factors of Drought and Flood at Centennial-scale in Weihe River Basin
Hu Haonan1, Liu Yinge1,2, Ma Kai1
1.College of Geography and Environment, Baoji University of Arts and Sciences, Baoji, Shaanxi 721013, China;2.Key Laboratory of Disaster Monitoring and Mechanism Simulation of Shaanxi Province, Baoji, Shaanxi 721013, China
Abstract:
[Objective] The characteristics of the drought and flood in the Weihe River basin and their influencing factors under climate change were studied, in order to provide scientific support for regional water resources planning and management, ecological environment construction and maintenance, climate prediction, and disaster prevention and mitigation.[Methods] We used historical data during 1800-2017 to establish the drought and flood sequence, and the wavelet transform, sliding t-test, rolling correlation and other methods to study the flood/drought characteristics of the Weihe River for more than 200 years. And the possible causes of droughts and floods were explored.[Results] The frequency of mild droughts was the highest, while the frequency of major floods was the lowest in the past 200 years. In the first hundred years, the upper reaches of the river was dominated by drought, and the lower reaches was dominated by floods. The next 100 years were opposite to the previous ones. The fluctuations of drought and flood in the middle reaches were less. The first main period of drought and flood change was 18 years for the upstream, 62 years for the midstream, and 10 years for the downstream. Most of them were small and medium cycles. The consistency between the sliding correlation coefficient and the decrease of ENSO variance was obtained, indicating the remote correlation mechanism between the drought/flood of Weihe River and ENSO. There was a teleconnection between the drought/flood sequence and ENSO. The analysis of drought and flood period and precipitation showed that the changes of sunspot and flood period were similar in short period.[Conclusion] The mutation of drought and flood in Weihe River has a high inheritance, which is closely related to climate and environmental change. Besides, more attention should be paid to disaster prevention when the number of sunspots is low.
Key words:  climate change  drought and flood disaster  Weihe River basin  ENSO  scroll related