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2015-2100年黄土高原四季气候变化的时空分布趋势预测
任婧宇1,2, 赵俊侠1, 马红斌1, 彭守璋2,3, 李炳垠1,2
1.水利部 黄河水利委员会 黄河上中游管理局, 陕西 西安 710021;2.西北农林科技大学 水土保持研究所 黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室, 陕西 杨凌 712100;3.中国科学院 水利部 水土保持研究所, 陕西 杨凌 712100
摘要:
[目的] 研究黄土高原2015-2100年四季气候的时空变化及趋势,为该区应对全球气候变化制定适应性策略时提供科学依据。[方法] 基于27个GCMs 2015-2100年逐月气候数据集,利用Delta空间降尺度方法对该数据集在黄土高原地区进行降尺度处理并评价,最后采用距平、Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Sen's斜率估计方法分析该区未来时期四季气候变化的时空分布特征。[结果] ①所用27个GCMs,最适合模拟黄土高原未来时期四季月均温和月降水量降尺度的气候模式分别是NorESM1-M和GFDL-ESM2M模式。②2015-2100年该区四季均温只有典型路径(RCP)2.6情景下的春季、秋季无显著变化趋势,其余情景下均呈显著上升趋势;四季降水量只有RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下的春季呈显著上升趋势,其余排放情景下均无显著变化趋势。③3种RCP情景下,四季均温在21世纪初期、中期和末期相比于气候平均值均是增加的,降水量只在春季均是增加的。④3种RCP情景下,四季均温和降水量趋势在空间分布上具有很大差异。[结论] 黄土高原区域气候对全球气候变暖有显著响应,对于造成未来时期黄土高原区域特定季节下气候变化的成因等问题,还需展开进一步的研究。
关键词:  气候变化  Delta空间降尺度方法  Mann-Kendall趋势检验  Sen's斜率估计  黄土高原
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2019.05.037
分类号:P467
基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年项目“基于动态植被模型的延河流域潜在植被分布及生境适宜度研究”(41601058);中国科学院西部之光“青年学者B类”项目“黄土高原地区潜在自然植被的模拟研究”(XAB2015B07);国家重点研发计划“水资源高效开发利用”重点专项“黄河流域水沙变化机理与趋势预测”(2016YFC0402408-3)
Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Seasonal Climate Change Trends Over Loess Plateau During 2015-2100
Ren Jingyu1,2, Zhao Junxia1, Ma Hongbin1, Peng Shouzhang2,3, Li Bingyin1,2
1.Upper and Middle Yellow River Bureau, Yellow River Conservancy Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710021, China;2.State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China;3.Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China
Abstract:
[Objective] Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the climate change trends during 2015-2100 in the four seasons for the Loess Plateau were studied to provide a scientific basis for formulating adaptive strategies to cope with global climate change.[Methods] Based on the monthly climate datasets of 27 general circulation models (GCMs) from 2015 to 2100, the Delta method was used to process and evaluate the dataset of the Loess Plateau. At the same time, the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator test were used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the future climate change trends of this region in all seasons.[Results] ① Among the 27 GCMs used, NorESM1-M and GFDL-ESM2M were the most suitable climate models for simulating the downscaling data of the future monthly mean temperature and precipitation of the Loess Plateau in all seasons. ② There was no significant trend of the mean temperature over the Loess Plateau from 2015 to 2100 in the spring and autumn under the representative concentration pathways(RCP)2.6 scenario, and in the remaining scenarios, the temperature showed a significant upward trend. Precipitation during the four seasons showed a significant upward trend in the spring under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, while there was no significant trend in the remaining emission scenarios. ③ Under the three kinds of RCP scenarios, the mean temperature of the four seasons increased in the beginning, middle, and end of the 21st century, compared with the climate average; however, the precipitation increased only in spring. ④ Under the three kinds of RCP scenarios, significant differences in the spatial distribution of the mean temperature and precipitation in all seasons were observed.[Conclusion] The climate of the Loess Plateau has a significant response to global warming, and further research is needed on the causes of climate change in the Loess Plateau region in a specific season in the future.
Key words:  climate change  delta downscaling  Mann-Kendall trend test  Sen's slope estimator test  Loess Plateau