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1977-2017年锡林郭勒盟中部草原植被覆盖时空演变及预测
艾丽娅1, 王少军1, 张志2
1.中国地质大学(武汉) 地理与信息工程学院, 湖北 武汉 430074;2.中国地质大学(武汉) 地球物理与空间信息学院, 湖北 武汉 430074
摘要:
[目的] 分析内蒙古自治区锡林郭勒盟锡林浩特市和阿巴嘎旗植被覆盖变化状况、影响因素及发展趋势,为区域生态环境保护和治理提供科学参考。[方法] 基于5期Landsat影像反演1977-2017年间植被覆盖时空变化,结合气候及社会经济数据探讨其演化影响因素,通过CA-Markov模型预测2025年植被覆盖状况。[结果] ①在时间上,植被覆盖显示以2000年为拐点先下降后缓慢上升状态;1977-2000年间,中、高植被覆盖面积合计变化-27 862.42 km2,2000-2017年间合计变化16 649.44 km2。②在空间上,中部植被覆盖变化大,北部、东部变化较小。局地上,自然保护区内植被覆盖保持良好状态;采矿等活动导致周边植被覆盖的下降;城镇用地等生活空间的扩张对周围植被覆盖变化影响较小。③气候变化是植被覆盖变化的基本驱动力,人为因素起主要影响作用,生态建设工程、畜牧量控制等起正向影响;畜牧量过载、采矿等起负向影响。④2025年预测结果显示植被覆盖上升,持续恢复,但恢复程度不理想。[结论] 应坚持绿水青山就是金山银山的发展理念,加大生态环境建设力度,"努力把内蒙古建成中国北方重要的生态安全屏障"。
关键词:  植被覆盖度  时空演变  Landsat影像  CA-Markov模型  锡林郭勒
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2019.05.035
分类号:X853;TP753
基金项目:中国地质调查局项目“全国2017年新增的矿山恢复治理状况监测”(121201003000172718)
Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Vegetation Cover in Central Part of Xilingol Grassland During 1977-2017
Ailiya1, Wang Shaojun1, Zhang Zhi2
1.School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, Hubei 430074, China;2.Institute of Geophysics&Geomatics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, Hubei 430074, China
Abstract:
[Objective] The changes, influencing factors, and development trends of vegetation cover in Xilinhot City and Abaga Banner, Xilingol League, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region were analyzed to provide a scientific reference for regional ecological and environmental protection and governance.[Methods] Landsat images in five phases were used to obtain the spatial-temporal evolution of vegetation coverage from 1977 to 2017, which was combined with climate and social-economic data as a means of exploring influencing factors. The CA-Markov model was also used to predict the vegetation coverage in 2025.[Results] ① In terms of time, the vegetation coverage showed a state of decrease from 1977 but then began to slowly increase after 2000. The median and high vegetation coverage area changed in two periods:-27 862.42 km2 during 1977-2000 and 16 649.44 km2 during 2000-2017. ② Spatially, the vegetation cover in the central part of the study area changed greatly, while that in the northern and eastern regions changed little. In a local ecological nature reserve, the vegetation cover changed little, whereas mining and other production activities caused the decline of surrounding vegetation cover, but urban land use and expansion of accommodation had little impact on the surrounding vegetation cover change. ③ Climate change was the basic driving force, and human factors were the main influencing factor. Ecological construction projects and livestock quantity control had positive effects, whereas livestock quantity overload and mineral exploitation had negative effects. ④ The predicted results for 2025 suggest that vegetation cover will increase and maintain a state of recovery, but that the degree of recovery was not very good.[Conclusion] People in the study area need to focus on the development concept "lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets". An increase in construction efforts for providing ecological and environmental security services is needed to make Inner Mongolia an important ecological security barrier in northern China.
Key words:  fractional vegetation coverage  spatio-temporal evolution  Landsat image  CA-Markov model  Xilingol