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低山丘陵区暴雨洪水特征与洪灾风险评估——以赣江上游为例
刘光旭1, 王小军1,2, 徐新创1,3, 相爱存1, 邱世藩1, 黄萍1
1.赣南师范大学 地理与环境工程学院, 江西 赣州 341000;2.华南师范大学 地理科学学院, 广州 510631;3.湖北科技学院 资源环境科学与工程学院, 湖北 咸宁 4371000
摘要:
[目的] 评估赣江上游洪灾风险,为区域减灾及社会经济发展提供参考。[方法] 从气候和地形等自然条件出发,结合实测资料分析暴雨洪水时空特征;采用层次分析法确定致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体的易损性和防洪救灾能力4个因子的14个指标的权重,借助GIS平台进行风险因子分析和综合风险评估。[结果] 暴雨洪水多集中在3-7月,春夏季暴雨频次占全年的80.4%,洪水频次占95.9%,空间上主要分布在东北大部;致灾因子危险性风险等级东北部高,西部较低;孕灾环境敏感性风险呈带状,总体上中间高四周低;承灾体易损性风险中西,中北部高,四周低;防洪救灾能力西高东低,南高北低,从西南向东北递减;综合风险为中北部、中东部高风险,东南部、西部低风险;各风险等级面积比例存在差异,高风险和较高风险面积占比达37.3%。[结论] 研究区暴雨洪水特征兼具丘陵与平原型特征,暴雨和洪水存在较明显的正相关关系;洪灾风险评估结果与赣江上游区实际基本符合,验证了指标体系及评估模型合理性。
关键词:  暴雨洪水  风险评估  层次分析法  赣江上游
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2019.05.033
分类号:P333.2;X43;P954
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“气候变化下南方丘陵区洪水灾害测度及其脆弱性研究”(41561020);国家自然科学基金项目(41662012);国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201710418003)
Characteristics of Rainstorm Flood and Risk Assessment in a Low Mountainous and Hilly Area -A Case Study at Upstream Areas of Ganjiang River
Liu Guangxu1, Wang Xiaojun1,2, Xu Xinchuang1,3, Xiang Aicun1, Qiu Shifan1, Huang Ping1
1.School of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Gannan Normal University, Ganzhou, Jiangxi 341000, China;2.School of Geographical Science, South China Normal University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510631, China;3.School of Resources Environment Science and Engineering, Hubei University of Science and Technology, Xianning, Hubei 437100, China
Abstract:
[Objective] This study seeks to assess flood risk to provide reference for regional disaster reduction and socio-economic development in upstream areas of the Ganjiang River.[Methods] The temporal and spatial features data of a rainstorm flood occurring under natural conditions were collected and analyzed. The weights of 14 indicators of 4 factors among risk of disaster-causing factors, sensitivity of disaster-bearing environments, vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies and the capacity of disaster controls were determined using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and then risk factor analysis and comprehensive risk assessment were carried out in GIS.[Results] The floods were mostly concentrated from March to July in the study area. The rainstorms in spring and summer account for 80.4% of the whole year, while the floods accounted for 95.9%. The floods mainly occurred in the northeast. The hazard levels appear higher in the northeast and lower in the west. The sensitivity of the flood inducing environments bands from the northwest to the northeast. The sensitivity in the middle was a little higher than in surrounding areas. The vulnerability levels were higher in the central and western regions but lower in the surrounding areas. The anti-disaster capacity was decreasing from the southwest to the northeast, higher in the west and the south, lower in the east and the north. The comprehensive risk levels were higher in the north central and eastern regions, but lower in the southeast and west. Areas of each risk level was very different in the proportion. The extremely high and high risk accounted for 37.3%.[Conclusion] Floods in the upstream areas of the Ganjiang River are characterized by floods occurring in both the hilly and plain areas. There is a significant positive correlation between rainstorms and floods. These risk assessment results are consistent with the actual situations observed in the study area in most cases, which verifies indirectly the rationality of the indicators selected and the evaluation model.
Key words:  rainstorm flood  risk assessment  analytic hierarchy process (AHP)  the upstream areas of Ganjiang River