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基于模糊综合评判模型的东北三省水资源承载力研究
张琦1, 李松森1, 夏慧琳2
1.东北财经大学 财政税务学院, 辽宁 大连 116025;2.南京财经大学 财政与税务学院, 江苏 南京 210023
摘要:
[目的] 定量分析东北三省(辽宁省、吉林省、黑龙江省)2012-2016年水资源承载力的具体情况,为东北三省水资源开发利用和生态保护提供科学依据。[方法] 基于2012-2016年东北三省的水资源条件、社会经济发展水平以及生态环境状况3个方面相关数据,选取人均水资源量、水资源利用率、供水模数、人均GDP、人均日生活用水量、万元工业增加值用水量、万元农业增加值用水量、耕地灌溉率、生态用水率以及森林覆盖率10个主要影响区域水资源承载力的因素作为评价因子,应用模糊综合评判模型进行研究。[结果] 东北三省2012年-2016年综合评分均值分别为:辽宁省0.468 6,吉林省0.684 0,黑龙江省0.550 2。[结论] 东北三省的水资源开发已有一定规模,虽然水资源供给在一定程度上能满足各省份的发展需要,但仍存在水资源短缺的现象。
关键词:  水资源承载力  东北三省  模糊综合评判模型
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2019.05.025
分类号:F205
基金项目:国家社会科学基金青年项目“自然资源资产收益分配的合意性测度与靶向性研究”(19CJY057)
A Study on Water Resource Carrying Capacity of Three Provinces in Northeast China Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model
Zhang Qi1, Li Songsen1, Xia Huilin2
1.School of Public Finance and Taxation, Dongbei University of Finance&Economics, Dalian, Liaoning 116025, China;2.School of Public Finance and Taxation, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
Abstract:
[Objective] A scientific basis for the development and utilization of water resources and ecological protection in the three northeastern provinces of China (Jilin, Heilongjiang, and Liaoning provinces) from 2012 to 2016 is provided to the scientific management of regional water resources and sustainable development of the economy.[Methods] This study focused on the three provinces in northeast China from 2012 to 2016. The factors examined included water resource conditions, socio-economic developmental level, ecological environment and three aspects of related data, selection of per capita water resources, utilization factor of water resources, modulus of water supply, GDP per capita and per capita domestic water consumption, 10 000 yuan of water consumption for industrial production, 10 000 yuan of water consumption for agricultural production, farmland irrigation rate, ecological water rate, and forest coverage rate. Using 10 major influencing factors of regional water resource carrying capacity as evaluation factors, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was applied.[Results] The average comprehensive score of the three provinces from 2012 to 2016 was 0.468 6 in Liaoning Province, 0.684 0 in Jilin Province, and 0.550 2 in Heilongjiang Province.[Conclusion] The water resource development of the three provinces in northeast China has a certain scale. Although the water resource supply can meet the development needs of the provinces to a certain extent, there is still a shortage of water resources.
Key words:  water resource carrying capacity  three provinces in Northeast China  fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model