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耕地资源可持续发展的系统动力学仿真分析
张雪花1, 滑永胜1, 韩成吉1,2
1.天津工业大学 环境经济研究所, 天津 300387;2.中国农业科学院 农业经济与发展研究所, 北京 100081
摘要:
[目的]探讨耕地生态修复对粮食产量和土壤重金属含量的影响,为耕地可持续利用提供决策。[方法]以天津市为例,运用系统动力学方法,构建耕地生态修复系统动力学模型(CLERSD),设置绿色发展策略、可持续发展策略、生态修复3种策略下的6种情景,对天津市2016—2030年不同用地模式下的系统发展趋势进行仿真。[结果]从长期趋势看,绿色发展策略中,增加化肥农药的使用虽然可以短期增产,但于长期无益,而且还会有较多的耕地由于受损而需要生态修复。可持续发展策略中,增加投资可以提高粮食产量,促进农业可持续发展;而增加污水灌溉,虽然可在短期内更好地满足作物生长用水需求,但长期使用会导致重金属镉的含量上升,使较多的耕地需要转为生态用地;生态修复策略中,种植具有较强金属富集能力的植物,可以使生态用地在较短时内完成对受损耕地的修复,使土壤重金属含量降低、耕地数量增多。[结论]在农业生产中,可以通过改变农药化肥投入、资金投入、降低污水灌溉和耕地生态修复等措施,维护粮食安全和促进农业绿色可持续发展。
关键词:  耕地  生态用地  系统动力学  重金属
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2019.03.024
分类号:X32;F301.21
基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目“基于‘全碳’核算的新时代绿色发展评价制度和规划制度研究”(18BJY079)
System Dynamics Simulation Analysis of Sustainable Development of Cultivated Land Resource
Zhang Xuehua1, Hua Yongsheng1, Han Chengji1,2
1.Institute of Environmental Economics, Tianjin Polytechnic University, Tianjin 300387, China;2.Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Abstract:
[Objective] The ecological restoration effects of cultivated land on grain yield and soil heavy metal content were explored in order to provide a certain basis for the decision-making of cultivated land sustainable utilization.[Methods] Taking Tianjin City as a case study, a system dynamics model of cultivated land ecological restoration (CLERSD) was constructed by using system dynamics method. Six scenarios were set under of three strategies:green development, sustainable development and ecological restoration strategy. The deployment of cultivated land and ecological land in Tianjin City from 2016 to 2030 was simulated under different land use patterns.[Results] In the green development strategy, although increasing the use of chemical fertilizer and pesticide could increase grain yield in a short time, it was not beneficial in the long term, and more cultivated land would need ecological restoration because of damage. In the strategy of sustainable development, increasing investment could increase grain production and promoted sustainable agricultural development. Increasing sewage irrigation could meet the demand of crop growth water in the short term, but it would lead to the increase of cadmium content, as a result, more arable land would need to be converted to ecological land. In the strategy of ecological restoration, planting the plants with strong metal enrichment ability could rehabilitated the damaged cultivated land in a relatively short time, and reduced the content of heavy metals in soil and increased the area of cultivated land.[Conclusion] In agricultural production, it is possible to maintain food security and sustainable green development of agriculture by changing the input of pesticides, fertilizers and capital investment, reducing sewage irrigation and ecological restoration of cultivated land.
Key words:  cultivated land  ecological land  system dynamics  heavy metal