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长江源区沱沱河流域1961-2011年径流特征及其对降水的滞后效应
罗玉1,2, 秦宁生1,2, 周斌2, 李金建3, 王春学2, 刘佳2, 庞轶舒2
1.中国气象局 成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室, 四川 成都 610072;2.四川省气候中心, 四川 成都 610072;3.成都信息工程大学, 四川 成都 610225
摘要:
[目的]分析51 a来长江源区沱沱河流域径流量在降水的年代、年代际、季节等时间尺度上的变化,以及径流对降水的滞后效应,为流域水资源管理和利用提供理论依据。[方法]利用1961-2011年长江源区沱沱河流域沱沱河水文站和气象站的径流量和降水数据,在此基础上结合累积距平、变差系数、集中度、集中期等统计方法开展分析研究。[结果]沱沱河流域51 a来年际及四季径流量均呈增加趋势,其中年际、春季、夏季增加显著,气候倾向率分别为1.00×108 m3/10 a,6.00×106 m3/10 a,6.30×107 m3/10 a;径流量和降雨量主要集中在5-10月,尤其集中在7月下旬至8月中旬之间。径流量与降水之间存在极显著的相关性;径流对降水均具有滞后效应,多年平均滞后时间为10 d左右,且滞后天数随着时间的推移呈扩大趋势。[结论]近51 a来研究区径流量和降水量的变化趋势均呈增加趋势,径流对降水具有10 d左右的滞后效应。
关键词:  沱沱河  径流  降水  相关关系
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2019.02.004
分类号:P333.6, TV121.2
基金项目:四川省科技厅项目“若尔盖生态区历史温湿配置演变及其可能机制研究”(2019YJ0620);国家自然科学基金项目“基于树木年轮的长江上游水系径流场重建及气候影响机制研究”(41772173)
Runoff Characteristics and Hysteresis to Precipitation in Tuotuo River Basin in Source Region of Yangtze River During 1961-2011
Luo Yu1,2, Qin Ningsheng1,2, Zhou Bin2, Li Jinjian3, Wang Chunxue2, Liu Jia2, Pang Yishu2
1.Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, Sichuan 610072, China;2.Climate Center of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, Sichuan 610072, China;3.Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, Sichuan 610225, China
Abstract:
[Obejective] The variation of runoff in the Tuotuo River in the headwaters of the Yangtze River in the past 51 years under different time scales of precipitation, such as interannual, interdecadal and season, and also the lagging effect of runoff on precipitation were analyzed in order to provide a theoretical basis for the management and utilization of water resources in the basin.[Methods] This paper used the runoff and precipitation data of hydrological station and the meteorological station in Tuotuo River of the Yangtze River source region from 1961 to 2011, and combined the statistical methods such as cumulative anomaly, variation coefficient, concentration frequency and concentration period, to investigate the variations of runoff and precipitation at decadal, annual and seasonal time scales. The hysteresis effect of runoff to precipitation was also discussed.[Results] The annual and seasonal runoff of the Tuotuo River Basin in the past 51 years showed an increasing trend. The annual, spring and summer runoff increased significantly. The climatic tendency rates were 1.00×108 m3/10 a, 6.00×106 m3/10 a, 6.30×107 m3/10 a, respectively. The runoff of the river was mainly concentrated in the period from May to October, especially from late July to mid-August. There was a significant correlation between runoff and precipitation. The runoff had a lagging effect on precipitation in most years, and the average lag time was about 10 d. The hysteresis period was observed being increased over the past time.[Conclusion] In the past 51 years, the trend of runoff and precipitation in the study area had increased, and the lag effect of runoff on precipitation was about 10 days.
Key words:  Tuotuo River basin  runoff  precipitation  relationship