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面向土地利用总体规划的建设用地空间管制潜在冲突检测
马丹驯1,2, 李满春1,2, 金晓龙1,2, 刘小强1,2, 姜朋辉1,2
1.南京大学 地理与海洋科学学院, 江苏 南京 210023;2.江苏省地理信息技术重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210023
摘要:
[目的] 准确识别、检测建设用地空间管制分区与城市扩张之间的潜在冲突,以期为下一轮土地利用总体规划的实施与土地资源管理工作的开展提供理论参考与技术方法支撑。[方法] 基于CA-Markov模型模拟预测了2020年江苏省常州市土地利用状况,在此基础上集成GIS空间分析技术,识别并检测了常州市2015—2020年建设用地空间管制分区与城市未来发展之间的潜在冲突区域。[结果] ①2020年常州市建设用地总量及新增量规模将分别达到规划目标的101.16%,159.97%,即会突破土地利用总体规划目标;禁止建设区内建设用地空间管制潜在冲突面积较少;②限制建设区内建设用地空间管制潜在冲突面积较大,约占新增建设用地面积的59.23%,其中约有59.15%的潜在冲突分布在武进区。[结论] 在常州市下一轮土地利用总体规划编制与实施过程中,应重点强化对限制建设区内潜在冲突区域的管控。
关键词:  土地利用总体规划  CA-Markov模型  空间管制冲突  常州市
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.06.045
分类号:
基金项目:国家重点研究发展计划项目“‘一路’重点区域国土安全监测系统集成与应用示范”(2017YFB0504205)
Potential Conflict Detection in Space Control of Construction Land Based on Overall Land Use Planning
MA Danxun1,2, LI Manchun1,2, JIN Xiaolong1,2, LIU Xiaoqiang1,2, JIANG Penghui1,2
1.School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China;2.Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
Abstract:
[Objective] In order to provide theoretical reference and technical methods for the implementation of the next round of overall land use planning and the carrying out of the land resources management, we aimed to accurately identify and detect the potential conflicts between land use control zones and urban expansion.[Methods] Based on the CA-Markov model, the land use status of Changzhou City, Jiangsu Province in 2020 was simulated. Then, the spatial analysis technology of GIS was applied to identify and detect the potential conflict areas between the spatial regulation zone of construction lands and the development trends of Changzhou City from 2015 to 2020.[Results] ① The total scale of construction land and the amount of newly increased construction land will reach 101.16% and 159.97% respectively, which will exceed the goal of the overall land use planning by 2020; ② Little potential conflicts between construction land and the prohibiting construction zone was detected during 2015-2020; there is more areas of potential conflict between construction land and the limiting construction zone compared with the prohibiting construction zone, and about 59.15% of the potential conflict areas are mainly distributed in Wujin District.[Conclusion] The goveronment of Changzhou City should strengthen the control and management of the potential conflict areas in the limiting construction zone during the next round of land use planning.
Key words:  overall land use planning  CA-Markov model  conflicts between spatial regulation zone and land use change  Changzhou City