引用本文:
【打印本页】   【HTML】   【下载PDF全文】   查看/发表评论  【EndNote】   【RefMan】   【BibTex】
←前一篇|后一篇→ 过刊浏览    高级检索
本文已被:浏览 183次   下载 115 本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
分享到: 微信 更多
南水北调中线工程水源区和受水区旱涝特征及风险预估
方思达1, 刘敏1, 任永建2
1.武汉区域气候中心, 湖北 武汉 430074;2.湖北省气象服务中心, 湖北 武汉 430205
摘要:
[目的] 了解南水北调中线工程水源区与受水区历史旱涝变化特征,分析及预估该工程因气候变化导致“无水可调”的风险,为科学调度与决策提供依据。[方法] 利用南水北调中线工程流域内近500 a旱涝资料及1961—2015年气象站日降水量资料,分析近500 a来南水北调中线工程水源区及受水区的旱涝遭遇特征及调水保障概率,同时利用21个CMIP 5全球气候模式降尺度后的模拟预估结果,对RCP4.5排放情景下未来的旱涝遭遇特征进行预估研究。[结果] ①近500 a来,水源区旱年出现概率呈先减少后增加趋势,20世纪以来水源区干旱年出现概率处于历史高位,达31.7%;②受水区淮河流域的调水保障概率最高(达87.3%),唐白河流域调水保障概率最低(为78.4%); ③20世纪以来各流域与水源区同旱概率均处于历史高位,汉—唐、汉—海持续同旱概率高于汉—淮; ④秋汛期(9—11月)为调水最有利的时段,非汛期3个流域的调水保障概率均在80%以上。⑤CMIP5模式预估结果显示未来各受水区调水保障概率均在87%以上。[结论] 20世纪以来水源区与受水区同旱概率处于近500 a来高位,未来调水朝有利方向发展,但21世纪后期面临较大的同涝风险。
关键词:  南水北调中线工程  旱涝特征  风险预估
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.06.040
分类号:
基金项目:2016年中国气候局气候变化专项“丹江口水库水源区和受水区旱涝配置特征及调水适应对策研究”(CCSF201620);2016国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFE0102400);2018中国气候局气候变化专项(CCSF201821)
Drought and Waterlogging Characteristics and Risk Prediction in Different River Basin Areas of Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project
FANG Sida1, LIU Min1, REN Yongjian2
1.Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan, Hubei 430074, China;2.Hubei Province Meteorological Service Center, Wuhan, Hubei 430205, China
Abstract:
[Objective] The drought and waterlogging characteristics in the water source & receiving areas of the middle route of the south-to-north water transfer project were studied, and the risk of "both drought " caused by climate change was analyzed and predicted in order to provide a basis for scientific decision-making.[Methods] Based on daily precipitation data of 265 meteorological stations during 1961-2015 and drought & waterlogging data of past 500 years in the middle route of the south-to-north water transfer project region, the drought and waterlogging characteristics in one water source area(the upper reaches of Hanjiang River) and three water receiving areas(Tangbai, Huaihe, and Haihe river basins) were analyzed, and the efficiency of water transfer in three water receiving areas were calculated. This study also investigated the future drought and waterlogging characteristics under the RCP 4.5 scenario based on the simulation results of 21 CMIP 5 global climate models.[Results] ① In the past 500 years, the probability of occurrence of drought decreased first and then increased in the water source area, In the 20th century, the probability of occurrence of drought in the water source area reached highest in the history(31.7%). ② The Huaihe River basin showed the highest efficiency of water transfer(87.3%) while the Tangbai River basin showed the lowest(78.4%). ③ Since the beginning of the 20th century, the unfavorable probability at each river basin and the water source region reached a maximum. The probability of simultaneously occurrence of multi-year droughts in the water source area and Tangbai & Hai river basins is greater than Huai River basins. ④ The water transfer efficiency during the autumn flood season(SON) is the highest, and that in all the 3 basins during the non-flood season is over 80%. ⑤ The efficiency of water transfer in each water receiving area in the future is above 87%.[Conclusion] The synchronous encounter probability of drought in water source & receiving areas in 20th century reaches a maximum in the past 500 years. The simulations show that it will benefit the water transfer of the project in the future. However, in late 21th century, the risk of waterlogging in both the water source and water receiving areas simultaneously will increase.
Key words:  the middle route of south-to-north water transfer project  drought and waterlogging characteristics  risk prediction