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HBV模型在富春江水库流域临界致灾面雨量确定中的应用
潘娅英1, 马得莲2, 张青1, 王亚男1, 骆月珍1
1.浙江省气象服务中心, 浙江 杭州 310017;2.浙江珊溪经济发展有限责任公司, 浙江 温州 325000
摘要:
[目的] 研究分析HBV模型对于富春江流域径流序列模拟的适用性,并通过水位与径流量的关系,得到该流域各级水位的临界致灾面雨量,为暴雨灾害风险预警和评估业务提供服务产品,也为富春江水库的生产调度提供重要依据。[方法] 以富春江水力发电站为研究区,应用研究区气象资料和HBV水文模型开展研究。[结果] ①应用HBV水文模型模拟富春江流域径流量,在序列的率定期和验证期,模拟与实测的径流过程分布一致,模拟径流峰值区与大降水的实况分布比较一致,模拟与实测洪峰的平均相对误差小于5%,经率定后的HBV模型在富春江流域的模拟效果较好。②通过建立降水、径流、水位三者的响应关系,可以确定水库在警戒水位、设计洪水位时不同前期水位的临界面雨量。[结论] HBV水文模型在研究区具有一定的适用性。当预报有临界面雨量时,水库可以根据雨量、径流的预报信息做出对水位的科学调控。
关键词:  HBV模型  参数率定  临界面雨量  富春江水库
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.06.023
分类号:
基金项目:浙江省科技厅公益资助项目“基于气象—水文耦合模型的中小河流域洪水气象风险等级预报技术研究”(2017C33148)
Application of HBV Model in Determination of Critical Catastrophic Surface Rainfall in Fuchunjiang Reservoir Basin
PAN Yaying1, MA Delian2, ZHANG Qing1, WANG Yanan1, LUO Yuezhen1
1.Zhejiang Meteorological Service Center, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310007, China;2.Zhejiang Shanxi Economic Development Co. Ltd., Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325000, China
Abstract:
[Objective] The applicability of HBV model to the runoff sequence simulation of Fuchun River basin was investigated, and the critical disaster-causing surface rainfall of the water level at all levels of the basin was determined through the relationship between water level and runoff in order to provide a service product for the storm disaster risk warning and evaluation and an important basis for the production scheduling of Fuchunjiang Reservoir.[Methods] Taking Fuchunjiang hydropower station as a study area, the meteorological data and HBV hydrological model of the study area were applied.[Results] ① Application of the HBV hydrological model in simulating Fuchunjiang river basin runoff, in a sequence of regular rate and validation period, showed an agreement between the simulated and measured distributions of runoff process. There also was a good relationship between the runoff peak area and live distribution of heavy precipitation. Besides, the mean relative error between the simulated and measured flood peak is less than 5%, indicated a good performance carried out by the calibrated HBV model in the study area. ② Based on the response relationships among the precipitation, runoff, and water level, the warning water level of reservoir and critical surface rainfall could be determined.[Conclusion] The HBV hydrological model performed well to a certain degree in the study area. The reservoir can make a scientific regulation in water level according to the forecast information of rainfall and runoff, when the critical surface rainfall is predicted.
Key words:  HBV model  parameter calibration  interfacial rainfall  Fuchunjiang reservoir