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川鄂褶皱山地溪洪-滑坡灾害与主要自然因子的关系——以香溪河流域为例
杜俊1,2, 丁文峰1,2, 范仲杰1,2, 李清溪1,2
1.长江科学院 水土保持研究所, 湖北 武汉 430010;2.水利部 山洪地质灾害防治工程技术研究中心, 湖北 武汉 430010
摘要:
[目的] 明确影响香溪河流域溪洪—滑坡灾害分布的瓶颈性自然因子,为其代表的三峡库区东部川鄂褶皱山地山洪地质灾害防治提供科学依据,并探讨地理探测器模型的应用表现。[方法] 应用GIS技术、逐步回归和地理探测器模型,分析研究流域溪洪—滑坡灾害分布与主要自然因子的定量关系。[结果] 进入回归模型的5项因子总解释度80.6%,贡献率依次为岩性脆弱性28.6%,断层缓冲区19.8%,NDVI 18.9%,暴雨极值16.4%,岩性软硬程度16.3%;地理探测中对因变量解释度较大的5项因子分别为岩性脆弱性24.5%,断层缓冲区20.9%,NDVI 18.3%,土壤入渗性16.3%,岩性软硬程度14.8%;岩性脆弱性与NDVI值、坡度的交互作用强度分别达68.8%和62.0%。[结论] 地质要素对流域溪洪—滑坡灾害分布具有绝对的控制作用,植被的影响其次,土壤和降水的影响有限,地形的作用体现在协同方面;地理探测器模型为定量分析非线性变量间的关联性提供了新的视角,但它消除了自变量的数值属性,在变量影响方向和重复性侦测方面有局限。
关键词:  溪洪—滑坡灾害  香溪河流域  地理探测器  空间分析  三峡库区
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.06.008
分类号:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目“山洪灾害监测预警关键技术与集成示范”(2017YFC1502506):中国长江三峡集团公司项目(SXSN/42779);湖北省自然科学基金项目(ZRMS2017000581)
Relationships Between Landslide Disaster Induced by Mountain Torrent and Its Natural Impact Factors in Sichuan-Hubei Folded Mountain Area—A Case Study at Xiangxi Catchment
DU Jun1,2, DING Wenfeng1,2, FAN Zhongjie1,2, LI Qingxi1,2
1.Department of Soil and Water Conservation, Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan, Hubei 430010, China;2.Research Center on Mountain Torrent and Geologic Disaster Prevention, Ministry of Water Resources, Wuhan, Hubei 430010, China
Abstract:
[Objective] The key natural factors affecting the distribution of landslide disasters induced by mountain torrent in the Xiangxi catchment, which represents the Sichuan-Hubei fold mountain area inner Eastern Three Gorges Area, was studied in order to provide scientific support for the regional prevention and control of the mountain torrent and geologic disasters. Besides, the performance of Geodetector model was also discussed.[Methods] The quantitative relationships between the regional torrent-landslide distributed pattern in disaster-prone mountain and its main natural impact factors was analyzed based on field investigation, GIS, general statistic method and Geodetector.[Results] The stepwise regression analysis indicated that the main five factors, i.e., lithology frangibility, fault range, NDVI, extreme value of storm and lithology hard degree can totally explain 80.6% of the variation of the pattern, and the contributions of them were 28.6%, 19.8%, 18.9%, 16.4% and 16.3%, respectively. The Geodetector analysis indicated that the main factors were lithology frangibility, fault range, NDVI, soil erodibility and lithology hard degree, their contributions were 24.5%, 20.9%, 18.3%, 16.3% and 14.8%, respectively. The interactions between lithology frangibility and the two vaiables of NDVI and slope, can explained 68.8% and 62.0% of the pattern, respectively.[Conclusion] The regional mountain torrent-landslide disaster pattern were mainly controlled by lithology, fault and vegetation cover. The harder the rock was, and the farther from the fault, and the higher cover level of vegetation, the less the mountain torrent-landslide developed. The Geodetector is suitable for the nonlinear geographical phenomenon in general. However, the linear characteristic of independent variable is ignored in this method, and naturally the repeatability among the variables cannot be distinguished. Therefore, the classic statistical method should be combined for understanding the results comprehensively.
Key words:  mountain torrent-landslide disasters  Xiangxi catchment  geodetector  spatial analysis  Three Gorges area