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基于模糊综合评价模型的天山北坡经济带水资源承载力评价
王艳1,2, 石荣媛3, 乔长录1,2
1.石河子大学 水利建筑工程学院, 新疆 石河子 832000;2.现代节水灌溉兵团重点实验室, 新疆 石河子 832000;3.新疆生产建设兵团 第八师炮台土壤改良试验站, 新疆 石河子 832066
摘要:
[目的]综合评价天山北坡经济带水资源承载力,为今后水资源开发利用提供依据。[方法]根据天山北坡经济带水资源现状,构建由3层12项指标组成的综合评价指标体系;基于状态变权向量进行指标权重分配,确定评价标准和两级模糊综合评判模型(FCE),对该经济带水资源承载力进行综合评价。[结果]评价结果显示该经济带乌鲁木齐、石河子、吐鲁番、哈密、塔城、伊犁、克拉玛依、昌吉、博州市的水资源承载力综合评分值分别为0.41,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.76,0.56,0.45,0.51,0.48。[结论]天山北坡经济带水资源承载力已经达到了一定规模,应通过采取节水技术和产业结构调整等综合措施,提高水资源承载力水平,合理规划并有效利用水资源,为“十三五”天山北坡经济带社会经济发展提供保障。
关键词:  水资源承载力  模糊综合评判  天山北坡经济带  水资源系统  生态环境系统
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20180913.001
分类号:TV213.4
基金项目:新疆生产建设兵团科技计划项目“新疆玛河流域蒸散发时空演变规律及其对气候变化的响应研究”(2016AG014);国家自然科学基金项目“膜下滴灌绿洲棉田蒸散机理与棉花需水模型研究”(51769030)
Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method in Northern Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan Mountains
WANG Yan1,2, SHI Rongyuan3, QIAO Changlu1,2
1.School of Water Conservancy & Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, China;2.The Key Water Saving Irrigation Laboratory of Xinjiang Production & Construction Group, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, China;3.Soil Improvement Test Station, Eighth Division of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832066, China
Abstract:
[Objective] The water resources carrying capacity of the economic belt in the north slope of Tianshan Mountain was eveluated in order to provide the basis for the development and utilization of water resources in the future.[Methods] According to the current situation of water resources in the northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountain, a comprehensive evaluation index system consisting of three hierarchies and 12 individual evaluation indexes was established. The weight for each evaluation index was determined based on state variable weight vector, and then the evaluation criteria and two-level comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method were developed.[Results] Comprehensive score of water resources carrying capacity of Urumqi, Shihezi, Turpan, Hami, Tacheng, Yili, Karamay, Changji and Bozhou cities was 0.41, 0.49, 0.43, 0.45, 0.76, 0.56, 0.45, 0.51 and 0.48, respectively.[Conclusion] The carrying capacity of water resources in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain has reached a certain scale. Comprehensive measures such as water-saving technology and industrial structure adjustment should be adopted to improve the water resources carrying capacity. Rational plan and effective utilization of water resources will promote the social and economic development on the northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountains during the "13th five-year plan".
Key words:  water resources carrying capacity  fuzzy comprehensive evaluation  northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountain  water resources system  ecological environment system