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1970-2016年气候变化对渭河源头清源河流域降水和地表径流的影响
牛最荣1, 张芮1, 陈学林2, 蔺宝军1
1.甘肃农业大学 水利水电工程学院, 甘肃 兰州 730070;2.甘肃省水文水资源局, 甘肃 兰州 730000
摘要:
[目的]探究1970—2016年渭河源头清源河气温、降水、径流变化特征及相互关系,为明确该区域气候变化对降水和径流的影响及模拟研究径流演变过程提供依据。[方法]在分析气候要素变化和径流等年际变化规律和相互关系的基础上,采用3种气温修正气候水文模型与流域基本水文模型相比较的方法研究气候变化对径流的影响。[结果]1994—1995年是清源河流域主要气象水文要素变化的分界线,1970—1994年,流域年平均气温、年降水量、径流量变化不大;1995年之后,气温持续升高,而降水、径流则出现了整体降低趋势,2010—2016年平均温度比1970—1974年升高0.9℃,升幅15.79%;年降水量、径流量分别减少13.48%,31.82%。3个气候水文模型MQPT1-1,MQPT2-1和MQPT3-1对年降水—径流过程模拟精度均比一般水文模型高,尤其是气温扰动法修正模型MQPT2-1平均模拟误差仅为3.03%,比不考虑气候变化的流域水文模型精度提高11.62%。[结论]渭河源头清源河小流域近50 a气温变化对径流影响非常明显,尤其是1995年之后;在径流模拟分析中必须考虑气温等主要气象因子的影响。
关键词:  清源河流域  气候变化  径流  降水  气候水文模型
DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.05.002
分类号:P343
基金项目:国家自然科学基金重大研究计划“黑河流域中游地区生态—水文过程演变规律及其耦合研究”(91125015);水利部公益性科研专项(201301083);甘肃省重点研发计划(18YF1FA081)
Impacts of Climatic Change on Precipitation and Surface Runoff from 1970 to 2016 in Qingyuan River Basin, Source Region of Weihe River
NIU Zuirong1, ZHANG Rui1, CHEN Xuelin2, LIN Baojun1
1.College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China;2.Gansu Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China
Abstract:
[Objective] To investigate the variations and relationships of temperature, precipitation and runoff during 1970-2016, in order to explore the impacts of climate change on precipitation and runoff and simulate the evolution of runoff in Qingyuan River, the source region of the Weihe River.[Methods] The inter-annual variations and the relationships between climatic elements and runoff were analyzed. Three temperature modified climate-hydrological models and general hydrological models were compared to explore the impacts of climate change on runoff.[Results] The period from 1994 to 1995 was the dividing line of the main meteorological and hydrological elements in Qingyuan River basin. During 1970-1994, there was no significant variation in the annual average temperature, precipitation and runoff. However, temperature showed an increasing trend while precipitation and runoff showed a decreasing trend after 1995. Compared to the period of 1970-1974, the annual average temperature increased by 0.9℃ in 2010-2016 (with a rate of 15.79%), while the annual precipitation and runoff decreased by 13.48% and 31.82%, respectively. The three climate-hydrological models, MQPT1-1, MQPT2-1 and MQPT3-1, showed higher accuracies than the general hydrological model by simulating the annual precipitation and runoff processes. Especially, the mean simulated error of MQPT2-1 (modified model based on air temperature disturbance) was only 3.03%, which was 11.62% higher than the general hydrological model (without considering climate change).[Conclusion] Temperature variation had significant impacts on runoff in the last 50 years in the Qingyuan River basin, especially after 1995. In addition, the impacts of temperature and other major meteorological factors should be involved in runoff simulation analysis.
Key words:  Qingyuan River basin  climate change  runoff  precipitation  climate-hydrological model